ES futures made a marginal new high today on the FOMC report out and press conference. The ES 4-hr chart is below.
Price is still in the vicinity of the 38.2% retrace. It might again pop higher tomorrow, but if it starts to get over 50% around 5,808 - 5,810, then it would put the fourth wave in more jeopardy, and we would then be left with only (a), (b), (c) down as per the Monday 17 March post shown earlier. The EWO is still within range of a fourth wave, also.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
I see a 🐻 flag
ReplyDeleteI think this is the last place I could put this channel on the ES.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/z0ZOBau
Expanding ending diagonal on ES 15 Min? Drawing shortly.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/nQtoG0T
DeleteIt has a nice structure overall and the EED is have trouble with the bottom trend line as they often do.
DeleteSo far C is .618 of A.
https://imgur.com/0Di04nT
I don't think that this expanding diagonal count works in the S&P 500 (cash) index, because the wave iv low (today, Thursday) would be lower than the wave ii low (yesterday, Wednesday). 🤔
DeleteI never count cash because of all the missing waves but a quick look and it appears to still be struggling in the corrective channel and the EWO does not look great. All that being said, the big money does not care what I see and maybe that is the setup that they want to ramp it north.
DeleteGood luck all today!
I have a different view. Trying to read futures is too messy and too many waves. Cash count is always simpler and clean..
DeleteFYI, I think that this is starting to look like a nested 1-2 count:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4JF7GWBW/
We shall see if we get the expected breakout to the upside.
TJs 4th wave, your nested 1-2 i-ii that can also be a-b-c of wave II, are the top counts here, IMHO. Toss a coin to which side panic reverses their positions next.
Delete👍🪙
DeleteSPY cash 30-min: this is all I have at the moment based on the Fibo ruler for the first a, and b. Then, (x) is larger.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GLg0edDX/
Degrees are for illustration. To fit in with the main wave count, just reduce the degrees by one.
TJ
currently back-testing the upward-sloping three-touch trend line. Could it turn into a diagonal? It could. But it hasn't yet. TJ.
Deletestill back-testing trend line as of the end of the shift. A couple of other degree notes logged.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/z8D4XmIr/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.