Lower Low, Lower Close (LLLC)

Today's lower open in the ES daily futures, combined with the lower close, allows the swing-line indicator to be continued lower today, as shown in the chart below.

ES Futures - Daily - LLLC

Despite the seemingly small size of bar, it was quite a whippy day and continued the trend of complex and confusing price action. In a way, the bar does represent the "battle at the 18-day SMA" with prices on both sides of it and a close near it. A possible tell is that prices closed in the lower half of the bar by the cash close (futures are still trading as this is being written). Further, the upper daily Bollinger Band is now under the 200-day SMA and should provide resistance to upward price movement. The daily slow stochastic at the cash close was still in over-bought territory.

That said, a break of either the last down (red) fractal or the prior up (green) fractal would help provide additional clarity. A break of price under that down (red) fractal - which is also below the 18-day SMA might set a sell signal for the algo's that use the band as a reference. This is not trading or investment advice - just describing what some algo programs might do.

From an EW perspective on the intraday chart, we counted three waves down, three waves up, and a close below the prior 'b' wave (see LINK here).

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe