The title means the video is 'short' in length - about 3 mins - and related to Pluto somehow; not to try to short Pluto stock or something š„µ. But since EWI issued it for free on YouTube, I thought I'd share it with all just to be sure you were aware of the information. There is a caveat below the video.
The caveat is that EWI has been showing this chart for many, many years without the sought-after turn. Still, it's hard to fudge the numbers involved, and likely there is some real truth in there. So, enjoy the video and keep an eye on things.
TJ
SPY 5-min: does have a new low this morning.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Xlogw9sU/
TJ
We have been looking for today as a low...
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QtPn13fr/
SPY 1-hr: so I'm thinking for the purposes of the SPY hourly chart, it would be prudent to put an overlap warning at 565.63, as shown below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Fst2J9uf/
Right now, there are only three waves in a channel. If things break down further, fine, we could get a longer iii. There are lower highs and lower lows to this point. But, if things 'turn on Tuesday', then a larger diagonal or a nested count may be in the offing.
TJ
Thx for the video. Hussman funds has the same opinion.
ReplyDeleteyw .. TJ
DeleteGovernment bonds are arguably even more overvalued.
ReplyDeleteSomeone needs to point out, while EWI has some interesting data they have been bearish for the majority of the past 30 years. I first listened to them during the 'asian contagion' caused by a Thai Baht devaluation in the mid 90s. Then they pushed the idea that 2000 was a supercycle crash, a la the dark ages. 100% of the time you can find 'interesting' information from them, but it always says the end is near. And yes I was a subscriber back then. They have absolutely zero ability to time the market.
ReplyDeleteI do believe we are on the cusp of a cyclical downturn, but that is based on the ~18 year real estate cycle, something taught in economics at universities. It is simply a boom and bust debt cycle, fueled by the Fed tinkering with rates. And it might still be a couple of years out. 2026 is the cycle date, 18 years from 2008. See Fred Fogelvary "The Depression of 2026" - written in 2012.
I said that in my 'caveat' under the video, and most of us here know their record. TJ.
DeleteI often think about how you have central banks buying all sorts of assets since 2009 with no skin in the game.
DeleteOn one hand I think Elliot Wave Theory must not be as effective given this level of shenanigans and on the other I think this is what one should expect at a historic top.
ES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen, price is back to the 18-per intraday SMA after having had only one close outside the lower band (odds 5-7%).
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Fractals are shown and one needs to mind if they start breaking upward. The intraday slow stochastic got over-sold but has not embedded (at least yet, the bar isn't closed).
TJ
ES 30-min: the first up (green) fractal back at 5,616 has been exceeded higher. The bottom counts as an expanding diagonal in the MES and/or a very slight truncation in the ES. So, it could be the fifth wave of a C wave or a slightly truncated fifth wave of a C wave which is not a problem for any count.
DeleteTJ
MES 5-min: here's that acceptable expanding diagonal fifth wave in the micro contract.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HRXBcSFP/
And the budding impulse upward.
TJ
Nice
DeleteES 30-min: the next up (green) fractal back at 5,636 has been exceeded upward. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY 1-hr: just fyi - by the Fibo ruler this upward wave measured just 'larger' than the previous up wave in the same direction, the b / ii wave shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FOa0DnPW/
TJ
Janurary 15th 2025 Wall Street’s Pre-Eminent Short Seller Is Calling It Quits. WSJ Nate Anderson article. Interesting read
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