On the ES daily chart, below, prices ran away from the over-bought condition we pointed out yesterday and they declined back to the safety of the 18-day SMA - as of the cash close - to decide what to do next.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Back to 18-day SMA |
This has the effect of temporarily at least turning the swing-line indicator lower. But the chart is dead neutral as price is at the 18-day SMA, although the daily slow stochastic is still in the over-bought zone. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the price action had the effect of overlapping the 'a' wave in the ES 4-hr channel, as below.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Channel |
So, now one must see whether the correction wishes to extend or not. In other words, is this just a 'x' wave down, or a 'i' wave down? It is again The Principle of Equivalence until the waves are long enough to enable a clearer count. However, if the channel broke lower, was back-tested and failed the back-test lower, then one would have more information to suggest that maybe the uptrend was over at the 50% retrace level. That is because 'usually' double-zigzags form a near-perfect channel, first, or a wedge, second. One negative sign is that price did not attack the upper channel line today. So keep that one in mind.
Have an excellent start to your evening,
TraderJoe
I still go back to this and wonder if this was not the right call on gold.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/01cmEuA
The current wave feels like a C wave. If so, the sp500 should be red by the end of today and ready to come down to test the lows.
ReplyDeleteIt seems see are in some sort of triangle for B still. If it's a B with a C down next.
DeleteGold (GC Futures) 4 hr: the EWO has indicated a fourth wave. This up wave touchin 3,100 is likely on a divergence. Might extend to 5 = 1. EMA-34 confirms fourth wave location. Price is up at upper daily Bollinger Band.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/g5HwgQm0/
TJ
4 might be w-x-triangle-y. TJ
Deleten.b. the 3,100 is in the June roll-contract. TJ.
DeleteES 1-hr: for the expanded flat count (Roberto's C wave, up), then price should try to maintain this channel. There is already an overlap warning, and a quasi-bearish engulfing candle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ebf599qg/
Just keep that x wave possibility in the back of one's mind. Hopefully, it will not be needed as that can get quite whippy again.
TJ
thank you!
DeleteSPY 5-min: ugly, ugly; there are three-waves-down ('possibly' five if you count the double-top), and three waves up in a deep retrace, so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MgtXcInt/
Need to see what the last half-hour brings.
TJ
..close below the prior 'b' wave; em..not especially bullish.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6leJdIVS/
TJ
Trying to hold the 2 week corrective channel on ES but does not look real strong.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
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