Almost as if were a pronouncement from the NBER that there was a recession, it is now official! The cash S&P500 Monthly Index now made a longer wave than the up wave from 2020 to 2021. See chart below.
As you can see, it didn't happen until today but at 6,118.72, the up wave surpassed the 6,118.34 needed to make a longer wave in the cash index. This happened before in the futures, and I commented on it. But it had not happened in cash, and it was quite perplexing as to why not. Now, we know we likely made a fourth wave of the Minor C wave up. The up waves do not have to be done yet, but the minimum requirements were met. So far, wave Intermediate (3) is longer in price and longer in time than wave Intermediate (1), which was also pointed out before. And clearly one can see - even on this time scale, the Elliott Wave Oscillator has a higher high as well - which was also pointed out on smaller time frames.
So, all we can say is that the minimums are met. This might happen in the Dow, as well. We'll see. Then the expectation would be that wave (4) would be longer than wave (2) and come down to overlap wave (1) without going below the low of wave (2) in the dreaded megaphone pattern that the market has been giving us practice with recently.
Please read carefully what I said about the upward waves not having to be quite done, yet. I can see ways they can extend. And we still need to take it one step at a time. So have patience, be calm and be flexible until we see something meaningful.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
thanks joe. i added comments on the post from yesterday if you havent seen it.
ReplyDeleteHallelujah! That has been my preferred count all along.
ReplyDeleteTJ, Will this cause a degree problem that the (4) would probably be larger than the covid circle ((4))?
ReplyDeleteWe already knew that (2) was slightly longer in price, as was pointed out earlier and below. Yet, (2) is 'just about' the same length as (C) down of ④.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uFTEgO56/
The degree definitions for an expanding diagonal 'tend' to be a little different because the pattern is 'expanding'. At the moment because they are 'so close' (that is, that (2) and (C) of ④ are so close) I'm willing to go with it and not be overly perfectionistic. If I see something that looks wildly off, I will adjust as best I can.
TJ
Thanks for the response!
DeleteES 5-min: ES has lower highs. If price can turn in lower lows, too, it might develop into something interesting.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/18lbah
TJ
ES 5-min: some indication of lower lows; how about the overnight lows?
Deletehttps://invst.ly/18lbm1
TJ
ES 6,139.00 the overnight low has been exceeded lower. Daily Pivot at 6,135 and S1 at 6,116.25 TJ.
Delete..now down to daily pivot PP. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: here's the break of the overnight low on the intraday wave-counting screen.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/P1gqJf3d/
TJ
Now another 1.618 down wave. TJ
DeleteLet's see if it turns into anything.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Eh3ccqxJ/
TJ
ES 1-Hr: this is the best I can do on the ambiguous wave up at this time in the channel count with alternation. Note that the Dow has not yet gone over the high, nor have just the 'front-month' futures (although the roll-over contract has gone over its previous high).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/T1m4DRNT/
TJ
note where the prior 4's are and the 38 - 50% from the Fibo ruler on the right. TJ.
Delete....to add to a previous discussion.
ReplyDeletehttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-enters-darker-age-110003632.html
thx! TJ
DeleteSPY 5-min: based on the bar count, the recent lower low likely only ends the 'internal' channel wave. Serious readers should draw the likely larger channel wave and see if that holds.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/75ICqZ3P/
TJ
Joe, I would think that at a wave 3 high, the AD Line would be at a new high as opposed to a Wave 5 where is would be lower with divergence. Also the McClellen summation index just turned positive so it’s very low yet SP new high. Look forward to your comments. Thanks
ReplyDeleteAs of a couple of weeks ago, the NYAD 'was' at a new all-time high. So I don't see the discrepancy. It is a reason I have been very cautious calling for serious declines. Maybe NYAD will diverge on (5). TJ.
DeleteWith SP CASH at new highs yesterday I am seeing divergence in both NYAD and In AD line of common stock only of NYSE compared to previous high so there is slight divergence. Also with SP at new highs it’s odd to see McClellen Summation Index so low.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ