Just as a matter of record, based on the measurements in this chart, the contracting ending diagonal for Primary ⑤ remains a viable form for the NYSE Composite Stock Average ($NYA). The market has drawn the trend lines pretty exactingly, and price has started down where it needs to have from the 0.786 internal extension of wave Intermediate (1) - see the Fibonacci ruler on the left for that measurement.
Clearly, this index is not as much under the influence of the Magnificent 7 as other popular indexes are. Now the question becomes, will this index head down far enough to create overlap with wave (1)? The Fibonacci ruler on the right shows that overlap in this index is indeed possible with a wave that would be shorter than wave (2) as required in a contracting diagonal. For this reason, in this index, for this count to persist, new highs before overlap would tend to disfavor this scenario. It's quite a large monthly bar that got started, and it has not retraced much, yet. So, confirmation of the candle is what's needed.
Let's see how it goes for a potentially very clear count on an Index that includes all the stocks traded on the NYSE. Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
ES 1-Hr (CFD) : Here's one take on the geometry of the last couple of days, including the overnight. So far, a little better than c = a if a triangle is considered for the b wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/18ga3v
If you disagree or have a different view, that's ok. We do the best we can.
TJ
Maybe there was a triangle in the middle of that mess.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/Q04ujx5
Or maybe a double zigzag.
DeleteIf we don't break below that gap from yesterday quick, there's another gap at the top of the range on spy. I was thinking we'd get it later, now I'm not sure. We've got two days to get under the weekly 18ma, otherwise bias will definitely shift to bull again.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: above 6,050 a wave (iv) would become longer than a wave (ii); this is a slightly lower invalidation point. TJ
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: so far, so good. Price has broken below the obvious wedge and has closed the opening gap. Another benchmark along the way would be if the down wave became longer than the prior down wave crossing below 590.80, as shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/31LRUsGy/
There are ways to recapture the high, so be on one's toes.
TJ
ES Daily: reminder in the front-month contract, the 18-day SMA is at about the 5,973 - 5 area. Price has been as low as 5,973 and may be considered to have touched it, and bounced.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/iNseyF0I/
TJ
SPY 15-min: wedge converts to possible triangle or top.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KW16J9rC/
TJ
SPY 5-min: greater than 90% wave. Now through the low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/i8XrRk9T/
TJ
Breaking the low gives a little more credence to the "or top" count.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/22HLNveT/
Still watch for a break of 590.90 which hasn't happened yet. Low is 590.93 so far.
TJ
The recent decline in the S&P 500 (since Friday, 6 December) has been very choppy, and difficult to count as an impulse.
ReplyDeleteOthers have commented that the market may be in some kind of a triangle pattern, and if so, yesterday's very choppy, overlapping action looks like it may have been a fourth wave of C, "buying time" for the completion of the most recent leg of the triangle formation:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/sTMR0K5p/
Any thoughts on this idea?
looks like upward 5 up last few days now doesnt fit in a triangle
DeleteAccording to F&P, triangles don't occur between parallel lines, but double and triple zigzags do.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JqCwj2HE/
DeleteIgnore d and e..in abv just abc
DeleteFrom trading perspective instead of worrying abt triangle or implusive..keep an mind this is the bullish move up notwithstanding the expanding diagonal that TJ is monitoring
DeleteLooks like a Wyckoff top in the making. Bias as of now is all up
ReplyDeletehttps://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:640/1*N3-Z1bpTep3XOLYmDmh3tw.png
ES 4-hr: as I indicated before, what I do is based on 'measurement'. So, 'some' might see a resistance area here. Some might not. Regardless, if 6,050.50 is crossed to the upside, then the downward pattern cannot be termed a contracting diagonal. But that hasn't happened yet. If it does break it is as simple as moving on to the next pattern consideration.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/r5ADyLUz/
I hear yesterday afternoon that China announced stimulus - like many of you have. So, the 'night shift' once again ran away with things to upside while I was fast asleep. There's nothing I can do or say that will stop governments from throwing money at it to keep markets higher. All I can do is count as best as possible, and 'follow the rules'. If we go over the top again, it will lend more credence that the Mag 7 markets (S&P, NQ) are making monthly expanding diagonals rather than the NYA making a contracting diagonal. But, have a look at the daily NYA: it has a pretty undisputable overlap on the first leg up, and a longer wave down than each of the previous.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/3fHtPaRG/
So, we must analyze what we've got until we can reach conclusions that follow the rules.
TJ
There is 6,050.75 so any contracting diagonal downward from the high can be written off as an invalidation. Time to move on to the other patterns. TJ
DeleteSo, the best pattern I can find that fits what did occur is the simple (a), (b), (c) as shown where (b) is a Flat wave. The only triangle I can find is iv of (c).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mKmn5M4U/
TJ
NYA, maybe 5 up ended in october and everything since was second wave. i dont think a larger 3rd wave has completed in any indexes
DeleteSo is the next count simply to move proposed top to next ATH, or is it more probable IF we make new highs the more bullish nested counts are in fact increasing their probability ?
ReplyDeleteI'll try to address than this weekend because as The Fourth Wave Conundrum says, "when you have only three waves down from the high" there are thirteen possibilities forward. TJ.
DeleteES 5-min: we appear to be getting a fourth wave signature on the EWO. Possible triangle or flat for iv? If so, v should be less than iii.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LDoNv7VZ/
TJ
ES 5-min: looking more like the flat with a bit of overlap on a five-minute chart.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1rGQOwFb/
TJ
Could we - anyone? - imagine a worse trading environment we've had since the 2020 Covid lows? Everything three waves, triangles, expanding and contracting diagonals everywhere you look. Worse, what are the odds that we'll ever see a true impulse wave - bull or bear - anytime soon? More of the same or there's light at the end of the tunnel?
ReplyDeleteSurly since 2002 has been ugly. I have been looking at other markets more than ever.
DeleteThere is a reason for the kind of price action we are seeing. Machine trading comprises a substantial majority of trades executed. This likely will continue until SC top confirmed.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ