The recent up wave on the ES 4-Hr chart is very ambiguous. It CAN BE counted as a five-wave channel wave. It also can be counted as just a three-wave sequence. As such, it can be considered as 1) a fifth wave failure or, 2) as a B wave or an X wave at this time, or 3) as the start of another upward sequence. It has reached in excess of 90% up of the three waves down to minuet (c).
Even though the sequence has shown some signs of topping - such as an ending expanding diagonal in the ES 5-minute futures that counted perfectly well - it seems premature to draw any firmer conclusions. One would want to see some substantial downward movement that can be counted impulsively, a break of the recent parallel channel, and a retrace that does not go over the high.
Note: we could just be range-bound. That would fit with a potentially larger Minor 4 wave, lower yet. We could add waves that go over the high, in furtherance of a larger expanding triangle or other structure.
So, we keep the options open and count locally. We don't interject larger opinions at this time.
Have a great start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Thanks Tj.
ReplyDeleteES 15-min: I did just want to confirm that the start of the potential diagonal was indeed exceeded lower (not necessarily in less time, but it was exceeded lower) in the overnight futures waves.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ovBuE1yN/
TJ
Just fyi - from what I can see the Trump zoom speech to Davos is scheduled for 11 AM ET. TJ.
ReplyDeleteGood to know, everything looks ready for either one more high or a hard move down
DeleteSPY 5-min: gap fill
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ueOM16GZ/
TJ
1-2 down wave looks done. Wind up and then thrust up at 11am looks like b -c
ReplyDeletei see any new high as iii / 3 from the jan low targeting 6250 to 6400. if we dont make new high i count completed impulse wiht the 5th wave being extended.
ReplyDeleteES 1-hr: count based on measurement, so far. SPY is already over the high. ES is not yet, but high enough for a fifth wave. Yesterday's diagonal was a 'b' wave triple zigzag (w-x-y-x-z); that's why it broke the low, but not in 'less time'. So far, the observations are valid. Only counting locally here for the time-being. I have no big pronouncements to make except that counting cash is frustrating. You get 1.618 waves, and they don't go anywhere. Futures counts still seem more realistic.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4koTEv69/
TJ
I have given up on ES for a while. Here is gold and oil.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/e1tAq3R
https://imgur.com/GRoEJP8
ES has the new high. TJ.
ReplyDeleteTrade of life time. SPY option went from 20 dollars to 1000 in last 5 minutes. Cheers to trump
ReplyDeleteES 15-min: the best count I have from this morning involves the measured 'thrust from a triangle' that met its target, as below. Wave 5 is now at the mid-line of the channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EfcL77rT/
TJ
i see that 4 on left as being a 2. getting to be a pattern i guess. thanks
DeleteI don't cotton well to statements like that - just opposing with no work or suggestion of rationale shown. Not my cup of tea. TJ.
Deletehttps://postimg.cc/jW86ykQj
Deleteof course- sorry - the rectangles are both impulses when viewed at appropriated time frames with EWO. so, where your "4" is i have a ii. I suggested this count 11:18 AM . This is the same scenario as the recent chart where you suggested you thought about the "4" before labeling it. I have been reflecting on the pros and cons of different counting strategies especially when it involves third waves that extend and how/when does it become clear you are still in a 3rd wave. Thats what my post was about although cryptic.
the analysis completely ignores the current position of the Bollinger Bands. In other words, you are 'effectively' telling people to buy over a band, something Ira would, as he says, 'never' do. TJ.
DeleteWhat time frame Bollinger band am I telling people to buy above?
Deletedaily. TJ.
DeleteNew ATH high! Remarkable! It would seem the call for a SC/GSC high in 2025 was spot on! The EW analyst uses MotiveWave and made that call 2 years ago, which I viewed with some reservation, lol! She was right!!! 😊
ReplyDeleteA new (very important) post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ