Premature

The recent up wave on the ES 4-Hr chart is very ambiguous. It CAN BE counted as a five-wave channel wave. It also can be counted as just a three-wave sequence. As such, it can be considered as 1) a fifth wave failure or, 2) as a B wave or an X wave at this time, or 3) as the start of another upward sequence. It has reached in excess of 90% up of the three waves down to minuet (c). 

Even though the sequence has shown some signs of topping - such as an ending expanding diagonal in the ES 5-minute futures that counted perfectly well - it seems premature to draw any firmer conclusions. One would want to see some substantial downward movement that can be counted impulsively, a break of the recent parallel channel, and a retrace that does not go over the high.

Note: we could just be range-bound. That would fit with a potentially larger Minor 4 wave, lower yet. We could add waves that go over the high, in furtherance of a larger expanding triangle or other structure.

So, we keep the options open and count locally. We don't interject larger opinions at this time.

Have a great start to the evening,

TraderJoe