ES Hourly - Current Count

Below is the current wave count on the ES Hourly chart. There appears to be a minute ⓐ, ⓑ, ⓒ in formation. We were able to count out the triangle in near real-time, and there has been one pop above it followed by a deeply retracing wave which could be a (i), (ii). Or wave (ii) could extend in time if it wants, but not below the ⓑ wave low. And interesting, the way the CME settlement works, there is a fake gap between yesterday's settle and tonight's open because they settle at 4 PM ET while the futures still have an hour to trade.

The usual triangle targets are in play - the widest width of the triangle added to the breakout point - until they are not. One has to wonder how many elements of a barrier triangle are here, and whether that means the break-out will be stunted or not. Certainly, the market has gone through major gyrations to see if it could close the open gap on the left. It may do it tomorrow (being Friday) and/or it may go higher to make a new all-time high. For example, a ⓒ = ⓐ would be at 6,180 if that occurs, and that would be a new all-time high, above the prior 6,178 in the front-month contract & above 6,162 in the roll over contract. A new high is possible (in a potential diagonal that we showed earlier, and in a possible ⓧ wave, ⓑ wave or ⓓ wave of an expanding triangle, if we lower the degrees above by one degree). But such is not required in a continuing Minor 4th wave. Refer to yesterday's diagrams.

Right now, the market is content to whip back-and-forth, and back-and-forth making for some difficult waves. But the good news is that by the Principle of Alternation, if wave ⓐ was a diagonal, then wave ⓒ should be a straight-forward impulse, perhaps where only the (v)th wave of ⓒ is a diagonal.

Lots to think about. Have an excellent rest of the evening,

TraderJoe