This count remains possible on the daily ES futures. Still keeping track of degree labels as best as possible then it is possible to get a ⓥ = ⓘ relationship. The close-only chart is shown to highlight the form of the wave, the channel, and some measurement relationships.
The advantage of the count is that there is a clear invalidation on the chart. Since wave ⓘ is an impulse, then wave ⓥ could eventually turn out to be a small diagonal, as well. There is a possibility that the Dow can do better than this as its wave (3) is not as long as its wave (1), yet in that index.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend,
TraderJoe
On the hourly count, something like this is possible. There might be a retrace on Sunday into Monday, as a back-test, followed by a third wave down of wave c of (ii).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zdw7U47A/
TJ
Volatility definitely suggesting back-test ahead of that move down merely corrective. I suspect the move down from a final high will see a VIX break-away gap or TWS pattern possibly. Nothing remotely close on Friday.
ReplyDeleteAnother possibility if you want to consider we don't have a top, is C can be 3 of an impulse meaning 1) ...(3) completes after 2 more legs higher, and 2) ...there isn't a 35 pct drop for required (4) as part of an expanding diagonal. That's the nested count. I can post it if you would like.
ReplyDeleteI understand; the issue is whether there is more evidence for the extension. So far, your 1,2, i, ii scenarios have not panned out. By the EWO we got a fourth. This 'should be' a fifth, and I'm allowing for the (I), (ii) in that wave.
DeleteTJ
Trade war in. Top is in.
ReplyDeleteI like it, although I don't know where the B at the 8/5 low came from.
ReplyDeletePrevious post on 1/23/2025 but also speculated many times earlier. It 'simply' could not be stated with more confidence until (3) actually became longer than (1) in cash.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2025/01/its-official.html
That said, these are still 'probabilistic' scenarios.
TJ
Got it. Thanks TJ.
DeleteOn the chart included, a lot of the 3 gets cut off by the 0-2 line.
ReplyDeleteYes, as I showed that before. It either means that the cut-off peaks are part of a larger triangle 4 (which might be complete with tonight's down wave), OR, the guideline just doesn't work in this case. It's not a 'rule' but Neely does think it is very important in impulses. In other words, this 'could be' Jack's triangle, but I think it still needs to get down lower, yet, to cross back down under ((iii)).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QUIhLetO/
TJ
Thx!
DeleteIf adjusted for the contract change, than we did get back into ((iii)). I sure wish the rollover price difference would get smaller.
DeleteThere it goes
ReplyDeleteES Daily-Close: down to the channel, so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/eJqDbUDQ/
TJ
A tremendous amount of buying power was expended to propel the market higher off the Jan 26 lows so watching that level with great interest. Those trades go under water if we take out those lows and if leveraged...well, you can imagine...!
ReplyDeleteThe slope of the AO does have an ominous look.
DeleteLower daily BB is the likely target. From there it wouldn't shock me to see a massive squeeze to all time highs. All he has to say is "tariff negotiations have begun", and we could be at the upper BB in a week.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min; there is a lower low and a possible triangle wave 4. So, it may be possible to count five-waves down from the high, making a lower low than wave 'a' on the daily. Still there is no evidence of reversal just yet, so I'll try to pick it up in the morning.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/f2RbJSfN/
TJ
On days like this I really miss George Carlin. I can only imagine a show on moving the capital from Washington DC to Jonestown.
ReplyDeleteWhen it comes to comedic genius, Carlin was at the top of the food chain IMHO....none did it like him!
DeleteES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen; looks like three waves up, so far, to daily pivot S1. I have no preference as to the count. The market must temporarily prove what it wants to do.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/iIN38u0x/
TJ
Iwm spy and qqq all testing their daily18ma. Trump trading season has begun. Looks like C, I still think we go lower....
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: after three closes outside the upper band (odds 3 - 5%) this close was inside the band, resetting the number of consecutive closes). Chart to follow. TJ.
ReplyDeleteChart:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/K1QVgjZe/
TJ
ES 30-min: possible we are into a fourth wave if overlap can still be avoided.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hSAp8SVG/
TJ
ES 10-min: the futures are 'suggestive' of 'five-up'. Cash, so far, is not. The count might need tomorrow for cash to catch-up (barring, overlap, etc.). Let's see how it goes.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wathiygs/
TJ
SPY 15-min: this might be the 'five-up' in cash, within the necessary limits.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gWU0EEr1/
TJ
Oil triangle is still working.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/gnb4Xau
From CNBC (Goog Earnings)
ReplyDeleteGoogle parent company Alphabet reported its fourth-quarter results after the bell Tuesday.
Revenue: $96.47 vs. $96.56 billion expected by LSEG
Earnings per share: $2.15 vs. $2.13 expected by LSEG
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ