For the first time for this alternate, we can count a legitimate triangle in the ES daily futures that goes back to October 2024 high. We have been very, very patient waiting for the three-wave sequences and overlap that make this alternate even possible. Further the ⓔ wave dipped further below the 62% level today and broke the prior daily fractal lower.
As with the remainder of The Fourth Wave Conundrum counts, we have some probability associated with it, but it is a low number (in the 20 - 35% range) because of the number of possible patterns.
The benefit of this pattern is that it cuts off the 0 - 2 trend line in the right location, making everything to the right of Minor 3 part of the potential fourth wave.
Can the pattern devolve lower into a Flat? It can. It just hasn't yet. Still there is absolutely nothing to the downside that will surprise us. Can the minute ⓔ wave develop further sideways into a triangle, itself? It can. That is because so far it only looks like simple zigzags make up the legs of the potential triangle.
Maybe the pattern is waiting for some significant economic news. We shall see.
One word of caution regarding a Flat wave, is, as we showed, the New York Composite Index already has overlap on its first wave up. The triangle might help to rectify that if it comes to pass.
We're following it closely. We can't rush it. We think this is a really excellent lesson in fourth waves and why I coined the term The Fourth Wave Conundrum. It is interesting. It is trying. It is fatiguing, and it is instructive.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Appears to be very "boxy". My preference remains the "flat" count. That's just my opinion of course.
ReplyDeleteI certainly agree with the 'boxy' look. TJ.
DeleteIf I remember correctly, these barrier triangles use up a lot of energy so the exist is often weak, although this would be a running variety.
ReplyDeleteIf it's a true barrier triangle, then yes, s weak exit is a good likelihood. No proof yet, though. TJ.
DeleteIf it's triangle E, shouldn't we have a rally first to create the B of the final ABC of said E? This has been choppy like an A Wave.
ReplyDeleteAlso Vix daily looks like a large triangle as well and we are at the top of the range.
DeleteYes. A rally is not out of the question if the 'e' wave triangles. Didn't get much of a start today, tho. TJ.
DeleteThe only thing that is in cash the down move seems like straight 5
ReplyDelete