Yesterday's post said further up movement is possible, but it would strain the "right look" for a channel count. Today's upward movement progressed far enough to suggest a fifth wave in progress in a widening wedge rather than in a channel on the four-hour chart.
There's no overlap to call a diagonal. And there is no higher high, yet. There doesn't need to be, but there easily could be. There would not be a problem with a ⑤ = ① wave. The bottom line is that there is a new ②-to-④ trend line, and a downward trend would not start until/unless that trend line is broken in less time than the ⑤th wave takes to form. There needs to be a wave of both speed and power.
Remember, since there is no trading on Friday, tomorrow is the last trading day of the month. Word has it that some of today's up movement was due to quarterly rebalancing.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
I have seen worse with a fed decision in the middle. Maybe we get a triangle up here.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/OJQ8eAb
Not too excited at the prospect of navigating a primary 4th. While we know it will be some kind of 3 wave pattern at intermediate degree, trying to assess a 3 or 5 on these bigger waves has been a monumental PITA. Perhaps alternation just might inform our expectations? 😊
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: the blue count leads to the black (i), (ii) count which is the leading diagonal followed by a deeply retracing flat wave. This count invalidates over the prior high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qPzISB38/
Or the red count leads to the fifth wave, failure or not, which certainly may go over the prior high. There is no clear sign of a turn, yet, but the patterns are suspicious and worth watching.
TJ
OpEx pinning in play. LMAO at the blather about apparent disinflation trend's 'sudden" reversal, casting doubt on an imminent easing cycle. These folk are really clueless. Wait until they see what the dual hit on imports and distribution caused by the bridge collapse does to inflation! Clowns all! Have a great resurrection weekend all!
ReplyDeleteJust fyi - SPY cash went over the prior high. So, this is five. ES getting whippy in here after possible 5-min triangle. First here is the beat of the prior cash high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pb8JCJiG/
TJ
Next, here is the 'plausible' triangle which predicted the 'thrust' out of it.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/B6X97sPQ/
BUT there are possible ways for the whippiness to be part of a diagonal as well. Caution, patience and flexibility remain key.
TJ
fyi - for the diagonal possibility, ES futures 'must' go over the high prior 4 hr high again. Chart to follow. TJ.
DeleteHere is the diagonal idea on the ES 4-hr chart; the original triangle is reimplemented. But, again, in this count, ES 'must' get over the prior high. So far, it hasn't. It might.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2kyF1ECl/
TJ
..and if today falls back hard, instead, maybe move red wave 'a' to this peak. TJ.
DeleteThere is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ
I would be shocked if the patterns did not produce a ending diagonal for wave 3 or B or 5 here. It is possible to rally at least for another two weeks I think. MA Mastercard is a good example. Thanks TJ
ReplyDelete