The ES hourly futures are shown below in the chart since the most recent high. The cash market says only three-waves-down. So, for now, that is the count. We are still waiting for a wave in which price retraces but does not go over the prior high. There is currently a 62% retrace, and a lower low bar after that.
 |
| ES Futures - Hourly - Retrace |
The upward count 'can be' complete. But the downward count - if it is three waves - might only be a diagonal of some type. A further upward count might also be a diagonal, but it might also be possible to form a triangle here. So, we look for clues. A lower low today than yesterday would tend to rule out further upward movement.
FOMC Chair Powell is expected to speak before Congress at around 10 AM ET today and again tomorrow. Let's see how things go.
Have an excellent start to the day.
TraderJoe
(From CNBC) Coincident with drop -
ReplyDeleteNew York Community Bancorp tumbles 40% and is halted as troubled bank reportedly seeking cash infusion.
TJ
$1B cash infusion from a consortium of NYC private equity firms. Seems to have staunched the bleeding, but the underlying issues remain.
ReplyDeleteHere's an interesting chart of the Dow cash (works in futures, too) for regular readers of this blog. The measurements are correct. If the pattern works, it could end the current up move. Confirmation would be trading below 38,000.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vYg41CeH/
TJ
Thank you.
DeleteSincerely,
Regular reader and sometimes contributor of the blog
Maybe finally getting a finishing structure.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/KKEGjTS
This would be the abc to y for a wxy count to b in the above triangle idea.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/1sP8gwU
Last short attempt in Nvidia 915 to 918?
ReplyDeleteCrazy.
Please see this article on rules or guidelines for trading. IF you shorted, you are in violation of the most basic of the guidelines.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2015/11/paraphrase-of-ira-epsteins-rules-for.html
So, if you weren't successful, it isn't 'crazy', it is in fact what's expected.
TJ
Tj,
ReplyDeleteHow to count anything when a single stock as big market cap like Nvidia is moving both S&P and Nasdaq on its own!
That is a pretty clean impulse. I have a hard time seeing 906 as a completed move off the triangle.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/4WkSP5j
ES 1 Hr: note. The ES has hit 90% on the way up. This 'could' be a 'b' wave or the next impulse. IF it goes over the high, then the upward diagonal might form as the vth wave up.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/13vke7
Note the position of the moving averages. What are they "telling you" about trading? This is not trading or investment advice - just a statement regarding probability of success. One must be extremely patient in this game.
TJ
Watching the same on ES.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/5oGvxg4
Two near equal runs off 5086.5
DeleteES goes through the high. We still don't have a retrace that does not go through the high. Diagonal - as above - is possible. TJ.
ReplyDeleteTJ, I was always puzzled as to why we never got over to that 4hr channel on that choppy decline. Any possibility of a triangle from 5121.25 to the 5086.5 low during the night?
ReplyDeleteIf today's gap is for a 'three', maybe a Flat down to the near-equal low? TJ.
DeleteThx, will investigate when not on the phone.
DeleteMy triangle idea has to many hits against it. Your flat idea works well with your 8 fold path, so we just finished 3 of 5 on impulse or c of 3 of a diagonal.
Deletenew highs on spx.
ReplyDeletewondering how much the markets will fall when Nvidia cracks!
led it higher almost single handedly
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ