Below is a daily side-by-side comparison of the roll-over ES futures contract versus the current month only. It's another horror-story of a contract roll-over with fully 60+ points premium in the new contract versus just the current month contract.
The red arrows show the opening price for the next day. Regardless of the Elliott-Wave count, this is a bonkers situation which really needs investigation as it is largely unexplained and getting worse as the months progress. The prior roll-over on this platform was in excess of 55+ points. A typical roll-over in prior years was 12 - 15 points.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Select the B-ADJ button on the bottom right of the chart and it'll fix this contract rollover issue.
ReplyDeleteThere's nothing to 'fix'; that is the actual price of the next contract. Someone is willing to pay a 60+ point premium. TJ.
DeleteBecause we have reached a permanently high plateau.
DeleteLast draw finished yesterday and prog ends March 11th.
ReplyDeletehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/H41RESPPALDKNWW#0
Correct, as long as it is not renewed. TJ.
DeleteYou can read Fed's mind.
Deletehttps://www.frbservices.org/news/communications/022024-ending-bank-term-funding-program#:~:text=Federal%20Reserve%20Board%20Announced%20Ending%20of%20the%20Bank%20Term%20Funding%20Program,-February%2020%2C%202024&text=On%20January%2024%2C%202024%2C%20the,scheduled%20on%20March%2011%2C%202024.
We're getting closer to the proposed ECD not having the "right look"
ReplyDeleteTj,
ReplyDeleteCould the rollover contract be the Ending Diagonal Count with overthrow,
and if falls again, would confirm this pattern?
What most technicians would want to see is known as an outside-key-reversal day to make any longer-term decisions. Also see 11:07 am, below. TJ.
DeleteBearish engulfing pattern currently in place for cash. The underlying tone of Payroll report was more weakness, jobless rate up 0.2% and prior 2 months revised down 175k.
DeleteLooks to be getting mature.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/rRJvGPG
Larger impulse.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/kAMTOdh
One the larger scale. This is still my preferred count. We are in between the 1.27 and 1.38 of a, a good place for a b wave. B waves are also called bullshit waves.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/Wi22hpU
ES futures - the current month contract has clear downward overlap. Caution warning activated. In cash, this count is ⑤ = ①.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sMWGdFDP/
It agrees with BBR's futures count.
TJ
I think its nickels in front of steamroller time.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/em1mtCX
SPY 2-hr: first gap at the high filled. Might be an inverted hammer or gravestone doji. Requires confirmation. Futures retrace from this morning's low > 65% at the moment.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rLrzMaTn/
TJ
For all the AI and Fed blah blah blah, this was always turning towards the right, dying in the channel, and declining EWO the whole way.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/CkrDcNA
Speaking of which, NVDA has probed below the e wave on this chart from a few days ago.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/4WkSP5j
ES Mar contract, now below the Payroll Report low. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSo, we have the first sign of a 'motive' wave, lower - the ability to break a prior low. Now, if-and-when it retraces, there needs to be a retrace that does not go over the high. TJ.
DeleteES 8-hr: here is a potential diagonal ⓒ wave count that was studied last night, after the horror of the roll-over contract was noted. It is made possible by the overlap in the futures at 5066.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bYtvUcB8/
As far as I can tell, this count does not apply to cash as the same overlap does not exist, but I will look again. Further, again, we still need a retrace that does 'not' go over the high.
TJ
I suspect the drop is the first portion of a larger b wave in ED (5).
DeletePedro, wouldn't that make it an "Ending Expanding Diagonal"? These are supposedly "extremely rare":
Deletehttps://worldcyclesinstitute.com/trader-resources/trader-ending-expanding-diagonal/
But perhaps something like this?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zZVWF8rC/
Note to TJ: apologies if my wave labels are all wrong! This example is merely a speculative count, for the sake of discussion. 😁
That's the same as the cash count I showed earlier. Not sure why it is repeated here. TJ.
DeleteAgain, apologies for posting my running speculative wave count.
DeleteI was just trying to make the point that Pedro's suggestion would imply an "Ending Expanding Diagonal" pattern. 🤔
No. Because 1) there can not be flat numbered waves in a diagonal, and 2) because Wave four has to be longer than Wave two in a diagonal, and it is not. TJ.
DeleteThanks for the clarification, TJ!
DeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteAs I said, nonsense counts that don't follow the rules will be deleted. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ