The ES 4-Hr futures tried all day to make the 38.2% retracement level of a third wave, as below. As of the cash close they had not yet as the Fibonacci ruler, below, shows.
Although nothing has invalidated, the count remains situational until there are waves long enough to make a difference. As far as I can tell, any price movement below ② or (e) would greatly slant the odds to the downside.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
SPX projection
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_60f245662f05423f9c1e393d635cd367.png
JA ,, pls! do not post this chart again. It is either A,B,C up to (3) or else it is W,X,Y up to (3). Your posting it and re-posting and re-posting it does not make your Elliott Wave labels any less illegal from an EW standpoint. Your chart has in the recent legs all of the warnings of "incorrect counting". TJ.
DeleteCredit goes to Prechter for rekindling and popularizing EW theory {and adding on } to Ralph Nelson Elliots' criteria for counting waves.
DeleteHowever EWI has been wrong time and again in every time frame of trading for the longest time - that should question their total methodology.
EW theory remains same ,yet there are so many different wave counts by leading practitioners simply because each one has developed their own method to label waves.
Ultimately use of any TA is to project future price movement based on past and EWT stands way above any other TA in that..
labelling waves as (ABC or XYZ) OR correct to the T (being bookish) should not be the focus , as long as price direction is correct especially in larger time frames.
Your conclusion simply does not follow from your premise. EWI has been 'wrong' precisely because they have not followed their own rules! I have caught them repeatedly calling contracting diagonals (when wave three was 'not' shorter than wave one - as required by the rules) or expanding diagonals (when wave five was not 'longer' than wave three - as required by the rules) or in violating the very definition of the term 'degree' - in other words marking actual smaller degree waves as larger degree ones, in violation of their own definitions.
DeleteTo put it this way - there is only one EW methodology. That's what it is. IF everyone, including yourself apparently, doesn't want to learn it or use it than it stands to simple reason that everyone will develop a different wave count, and they will apply it incorrectly. This must follow as day follows night.
TJ
I love the part where they state: "Labeling waves as correct should not be the focus".
DeleteThat's all you I need to know to put this poster on mute.
I think gold may be into the 4 of a contracting diagonal on the 3day chart.
ReplyDeleteSince its slow. I was thinking last night how somebody could look back on these recent years and say what a top and all the socionomics details that are present.
ReplyDelete35 Trillion in debt, 7 trillion on printed money, crypto coins all over, nft's, classic car valuations, one could go on and on. When your in it, it is hard to see, but one could easily look back on this time and say, "How many signs did you need."
Just some observations on human behavior.
I fully agree. One for the ages. With consumer credit card debt at an all time high, the talking heads are giddy with claims of what a great shape the consumer is in as the continue to spend. Typically, the subsequent refrain will be how "no one saw it coming...!"" Right!
DeleteI'll just add on a bit,
Delete1) "Net current credit exposure increased $35.0 billion, or 12.9 percent, to $308.0 billion. derivative notional amounts decreased in the third quarter of 2023 by $17.7 trillion, or 8.0 percent, to $204.2 trillion."
2) Company stock buy-backs - which used to be 'illegal' - are one of the 'largest' sources of fund inflows.
3) The marked-to-market rules, which were in place before the GFC, have not been restored. No one knows what their assets are worth. Nor do they seem to care much. Massive complacency.
TJ.
I would argue more than just complacency, but also massive fraud. Marking bond holdings of the banks for example to market, would render them immediately insolvent. Stunning!
Deletekeep fighting the trend
Deleteyou will continue to be WRONG
6000 7000 spx
then you will become bullish ...and wrong again
my spx 5439 target from LAST YEAR is near
Deletebut i expect a 6000 to 7000 spike before its all over
to wipe out all you foolish bears
I think I'll name him "B Wave Phil" .. a guy who never heard of a false break out.
DeleteFollow-it forever, Phil - if that's what you want to do. And may it please your soul to the utmost. And it is you who continue to be wrong. You continue to act in an inappropriate manner on this blog, when all we are trying to do is count waves and trying to sort out up waves from down waves. You are apparently not ok with that. Or don't know how to do it. Maybe a bit of both. Probably a bit of both. So, you are the one that is wrong - and worse than having a bad wave count, you are 'morally' wrong to be so combative. All, I 'ever' did was try to help Mr. Caldaro publish a better wave count. There is nothing wrong with that. I did not have a site for 'pay' or 'donation' as some still do. That is, I was not a 'troll' - unlike some people who want 'money' for counting from one-to-five or one-to-three. I also did not charge people $1,200 or more for a 'course' on how to count to five or how to count to three - which is the only exception I took with Mr. Tony. It's a similar issue I have with EWI - they charge people a lot of money to watch them count incorrectly, break their own published rules, etc. I can have a moral problem with anyone that I think is "scamming the man". That's my right. You can not take it away: try as you might. When EWI counts incorrectly, since they are selling a 'defective' product that they claim to be 'expert' in, they should issue a free month's credit to the reader to help make up - minimally - for any financial harm they caused regardless of their legalese. But I'm sure you have other good ideas on how to better treat readers of your posts. I'm all ears. Always have been. Just don't post any links to a paid site here, or post work which is not your own counting or not done in real time. It is very easy these days to post 'any' section of data from a chart and say, "see this is what I predicted, then". It is just called 'pre-dating' the partial chart. NinjaTrader, Barchart.com and TradingView all let you select the days you want to cherry-pick and produce an A-I chart that says "see what I predicted back then". Many other programs have a 'replay' mode which will help do the same. I'm well aware of the potential for forgeries. I won't have it. Nor will I tolerate rudeness or "Phil is the God of counting, the one true God." Good luck with that one.
TJ.
elliott wave is bull
Deletei dont have a COUNT .. i have profit targets
given to you many months ago on my blog
you know where it is and where to find it
all the posts are there from last year laying out the 3500 BUY
and 5439 STRAIGHT UP
you are fooling yourself with elliottwave
you will NEVER know the count
because it is ALWAYS changing
its useless
GO LOOK
the blog is free
Then, if you are not interested in Elliott Wave, will you please leave this blog alone otherwise, I will begin the process of reporting you to Google to disallow your comments from here forward. TJ.
Deletein the interest of education of your readers ...
Deletei will only say that this what elliott wave would call a third wave ..
its straight up... which is the title of my blog post
if we push thru spx 5439
expect a 3rd of 3rd rocket blast to 6444
and probably 7000 ..
why 7000?
its a simple double from the 3500 buy given in oct
good luck to all
Right. Now there's a guy who doesn't believe in Elliott Wave. Calling a "third of a third". My goodness. For his sake I hope he's right. For his sake, he must have "no" uncertainties or qualifications about it. He 'must be' ALL IN, right? He's gonna make a million, right? No a billion!
DeleteOh, wait. You mean he put a qualification on it? It 'must' pass 5,439 first? Wait a minute. Where did that come from? Oh, yeah, Elliott Wave. It's not like I didn't
show this target box on the Dow back on Jan 13th.
https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2024/01/fibonacci-targets.html
Post was up a long time ago. But, I'm sure Phil didn't copy the EW method or the EW invalidation level - which was also provided. Of course not. He doesn't believe in Elliott Wave. He's just here to cause trouble and not to believe in Elliott Wave. So, after all, he's not the Elliott Wave God. Because the Elliott Wave God, believe in Elliott Wave. No, he's the Elliott Wave 'devil". That's it. But I'll still just call him "B Wave Phil".
TJ
Crude Oil 5-min: here is a count I was following all morning for myself (my interest and a small profit). It shows clearly what "B Wave Phil" says it can not. It shows a clear 5-3-5-3-5 Expanding Diagonal from the morning high. My question (for me, about the count), was "If that is a 5-3-5-3-5 diagonal, shouldn't it 'only' be leading, and shouldn't it result in a brand new low?" It was, and it has. Published in real time.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/145j8v
But, Phil says "it can't happen! Elliott Wave is bull" to quote him. All I did was count "five-down" and "three-up". You don't have to. You can do anything you wish. I made a few pennies off it and am just happy to share the result with you - for free.
TJ
THIS IS A COUNTING BLOG
DeletePER YOUR OWN RULES
DO NOT MENTION TRADES HERE !
I didn't tell you what the trade was. The directions, or stops, or how much I made or didn't. You know you're fighting a losing battle with the blog owner, right? If you don't stop the harassment immediately, I will report you. TJ.
DeleteHere is the chart confirming the lower low, and the 'Leading' nature of the Crude Oil 5-3-5-3-5 diagonal.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Co2BMi3P/
I just wanted to include it for completeness as the Investing.com chart site is not graphically that accurate.
TJ
Remaining comments are under moderation. They may get published or not. (Good EW ones will likely be published). I'll decide when to release moderation.
ReplyDeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day. Remaining comments are under moderation. They may get published or not. (Good EW ones will likely be published). I'll decide when to release moderation.
ReplyDeleteTJ