On the ES hourly chart, we are clearly in a smaller degree channel, with five-waves countable or nearly just.
Price is starting to get some overlaps which will become difficult to count. Because price went virtually nowhere in the overnight, perhaps the real time market will make a triangle or a diagonal to end the wave. It doesn't have to. It could just 'fail' in a fifth-of-a-fifth which would not be a failure to make its overall wave count.
Still, since full-on reversals are more common on Tuesdays than on Mondays, we need to let this thing swing around a bit and see how it wants to finish. Looking at the channel, though, we'd have to suggest that if the EMA-13 crosses under the EMA-34 on this hourly time scale it may prove to be the end of the overall move, upward. At least that is what the wave count is saying at this time.
As always, caution, patience and flexibility are needed as price again strikes at or near the upper daily Bollinger Band.
Have an excellent rest of the day and evening,
TraderJoe
ES 5-min: now a 78.6% retrace since this morning, watch it closely. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 1-hr: "maybe" it's a last chance ivth wave, as a Flat, to alternate with a Sharp second wave. No guarantees, just probabilities. I'm on 'overlap watch'.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/13t6cw
TJ
Good day mostly to watch prices. SPY 15-min, so far looks like three-waves-down then upward overlap. TJ.
ReplyDeletei can count 5 waves on smaller time frame and 4th was exactly 38.2 retrace but let's see
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WYW30cDQ/
sorry 23 percent retrace
Delete@grr .. no ..by degree labeling your first 'sub-wave' of (3) is longer in price than all of (1); so your 1 is larger than (1) the higher degree wave in the same direction which violates degree definitions. TJ.
Delete@grr .. see below at 7:28 pm ET. TJ.
DeleteES projection
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZEhNDQKT
SPY 15-min: intraday. Don't make more of it than it is. It still 'looks like' three waves with the second wave at a shallower angle of descent than the first - 'usually' a 'c' wave. This is followed by upward overlap, and hence my comment about why I just largely 'watched it'. Further notice how the degrees 'fit'. For example, 'b', the higher degree wave is larger than ② or ④, the lower degree waves. 'Measure' and fit the degrees to the measurements.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4KLztuwR/
Nothing says that this couldn't start a diagonal wave, but we are a long, long way from there yet.
TJ
noted
DeleteMarket is trying to hold that 4hr channel again. This is the fourth attempt to hold.
ReplyDeleteSure looks like Valentine's Day.
DeleteWould be nice to get a finishing structure on one of these rallys.
DeleteNvidia
ReplyDeleteSecond top coming up... 880 to 885
Then Crack!
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ