Nothing Has Invalidated

It is usually price length that will actually invalidate a count. Thus far, nothing has invalidated the price lengths, upward. The ES/SPX hourly triangle count we were working may have played out in this fashion. As you can see - even yet - the typical technical target for the triangle pattern still isn't achieved. That typical technical target for a contracting triangle is the widest width of the triangle added to the breakout point.  It comes into play around 5,300 or before.

Even though the above count may be playing out well, below is a very reasonable alternate which has a similar end objective in mind. It considers that the b wave structure, above, is actually a five-wave-sequence as below, re-labeled as iii.

That leaves wave iv as a slightly truncated flat, with an impulse following. It is very hard for me to tell the difference between these two counts, although the triangle is slightly preferred because the timing was exceptionally close to accommodate the FOMC meeting results.

But, from everything I can see since Thursday, nothing in this index/futures count has had a length invalidation yet.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe