A countable top is 'possible' based on the thrust of out a triangle. Further continuation upward is possible but strains the 'right look' of a channel wave upward - as we showed yesterday. Whether a top is here or not, caution, patience and flexibility are the by-words as most people know the market has not had a substantial correction yet.
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| SPX Cash Index - Hourly - Possible Thrust from Triangle |
Below, the daily chart of ES futures closes is wedging and has broken the line of lows several times. This indicates waning momentum. However, an acceptable length for Intermediate (3) has been reached.
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| ES Futures - Daily Close - Narrowing Wedge |
Further, the daily RSI has quadruple negative divergence. So, it bears watching that lower trend line again. Here's wishing you all the best because if the fourth wave Intermediate (4) starts downward, it is likely to be a very messy affair. There may well be late buyers at the 20-period SMA or at the 50 period SMA - these would like be people who do not know of or just want to ignore possible diagonal structure. (In other words, they might think the down wave is a second wave.)
In any event, comments for this blog are currently on moderation. Because of continued harassment, only valid EW comments will be published. There might be a delay in publication, or they might not be published, at all. I'll decide when to release moderation as I continue to decide whether to report the harassing individual.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Thanks, TJ
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: this is what I have for this morning in the equity market. Caution and patience are needed to see whether or not this wave goes over the high or not (it shouldn't unless this is part of a triangle).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/t6UdYYnz/
TJ
Absolutely remarkable how tepid the market's response has been to the bridge collapse. It seems there is little comprehension of what that event portends economically...
ReplyDeleteYou missed the memo, that is economic stimulus. ;)
DeleteTells you the market and the economy are two different beasts. And the market also reflects a reaction function to economic trouble.
DeleteES 1-min: so far, a pretty clean impulse lower with a 2.618 third wave, and a five = one. Now we have to play chicken again and see if the retrace stays under the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rirFJaFx/
TJ
ES/SPX (CFD) here are some parallel and fractals to watch, moving out to the 15-min time frame. There has been a 62% retrace, so if a down wave does get started it could be 1.618 or 2.618 or longer.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/1462x7
TJ
The smaller inside parallel has broken lower along with the first down fractal.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/14635-
TJ
Looks like and es triangle in here. I am using a 20 minute to get the right number of candles.
Delete3rd of 5
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ