For weeks we have been saying that if that market is to complete a Primary ⑤ top as a contracting ending diagonal in the S&P500, then wave Intermediate (3) 'must' make a newer all-time higher high to express its motive character. That happened today with the SPX closing above its prior all-time high. Thus, the SPX joined the ES futures, the Dow and the NDX cash which had done so previously. Today, Friday, had the highest close of the week - convenient for a close-only chart (even though the intraday levels were exceeded, too). Here is the weekly chart of the SP500 cash index.
One target for wave (3) is shown at 0.618 x wave (1). Even though the higher high was made, a diagonal is not a guarantee. Other things could happen, such as the popular (B) wave count.
So, the SPX so far did this to follow the 'rules' of a diagonal. But you know why the market really did this, right?
Um, it's a Presidential Election year, and this is Primary season. You don't think this somehow has something to do with it? I do. You don't think the current (or any) administration would like to claim this higher stock market as an accomplishment? The machine influence on the market is too distinct to miss. Corrections are short & shallow, currently. Complacency is running rampant, and it could get worse. But, as long as you and I know the reasons we might be able to pick our way around some of the traps.
Until then, have an excellent start to the evening and the weekend.
TraderJoe
hi Tj, just little off the topic. you dont have to agree with it. i think at some point you should do a post abt how to trade around with the ew knowledge you and others have here..its a probability game and ew does give us an edge..the question is how to profit of it.. just general rules how to manage the risk using ew and other techniques.. no specific investment advice.
ReplyDeleteHi grr ..
DeleteThat is a very broad and difficult question, not because trading is hard but because 'most' people don't like to follow simple procedures. (That can be good for the rest of us.) I have no way of knowing which type of person you are. So, let me start this way. If you will watch the video below and really take the time to digest it, then confirm back to me that you have, then I will add a few comments to the discussion afterward. Keep an open mind a try to really understand what this master trader is saying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNxt298VVOw
Towards the end of the video you will hear him discuss how it is all related to Elliott Wave. Best wishes, TJ.
interesting. i want to be a flee on dog. on q serious note what is the accelerator...the awesome oscillator?.
DeleteThe Awesome Oscillator is the 5-34 Elliott Wave Oscillator. The Accelerator Oscillator is the five -period simple moving average of the AO/EWO. It is sometimes called the Williams Accelerator or just the AC.
DeleteTJ
@grr.. I said I would add a few comments to this discussion after you have watched the video. I have added those comments as the next day's post. I hope you enjoy. TJ.
Deletethanks will check it out
DeleteTrying to run some things in my head from 4702.
ReplyDeleteIf we are in an impulse with the 3rd of the 3rd being Friday afternoon, and placing a 50% wave marker around 4850, it seems reasonable that we could complete the rest of the impulse and remain under 4984.
If we are completing 1 of a diagonal from 4702, the move from 4746.25 would have to be the expanding diagonal. I do not recall seeing a expanding diagonal were so much of the 5th wave is not contained by the 1-3 line.
I think a real warning for the impulse count would be coming back into 4841.25 and not leaving a point of recognition gap.
Say prices were to mildy cross 4,882 which is the equality marker. Then I was thinking of a lower daily channel-hugging contracting diagonal like this one for the red alternate to the impulse. It would be a punishing wave, but it would be way too early to call at this time.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hkwhO2vJ/
TJ
I would like this for the finality of it and invalidation points just hard to see current up wave as complete.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ