Here is a reminder of the daily ES count - with the extended first wave - that seems to be the best fit at this time.
%202024_01_30%20(4_17_10%20PM)%20Impulse%20C2.png)
If correct, we are into the smaller degree waves now. The alternate for the count is shown in red below the prices. If the black count is correct, then price must not exceed 4,995 in this wave. If the red count is correct, it would likely.
On a short-term basis there is the possibility of a 15-min expanding triangle in the SPX cash chart (which at this time can be seen at this LINK). So that means another high (or a failure wave up) is possible. Perhaps this will occur into the FED's FOMC decision tomorrow.
Note the RSI is presently diverging from the peak wave. We need to see if that continues. From a timing standpoint there are 63 bars in this chart. Note that 13 trading weeks is 13 x 5 = 65 days. So, we are in the vicinity of a Fibonacci 13-week turn date, too.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
At the ES high in the afternoon there looks to be an ending contracting diagonal that got retraced in less time than it took to build.
ReplyDeleteRight. Or it's part of the expanding triangle 📐? I'm on my phone now so I am asking. TJ.
DeleteI would say the up wave is probably over with that afternoon 4957.25 high.
ReplyDeletePoint of recognition is closed.
https://imgur.com/cs8bE98
Back on the computer, the up wave may be temporarily over. The fourth wave may alternate as an expanded flat. See link, below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IQzGNq4G/
TJ
FED is allowing emergency bank lending program to end March 11th. It's keeps going up right with the market.
ReplyDeletehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/H41RESPPALDKNWW#0
NQ 4-Hr: this is just to note that the NQ futures (NDX) have met their fourth wave channel and EWO objectives. They could go further, but not beyond overlap.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LrQD0aXo/
TJ
Reminder: FED FOMC rate decision scheduled at the top of the next hour, to be followed by press conference. TJ.
ReplyDeleteCNBC - Rates unchanged. Statement reworded significantly.
Deletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/31/heres-what-changed-in-the-new-fed-statement.html
TJ
bond mkt didn't give them the room.
DeleteSPY cash 15 min - the downward wave is 'minimally' long enough. It should form at least an a-b-c, down.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nYn2Et4u/
TJ
There's the lower low needed for at least three-waves-down.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CoFwHtH6/
Can keep going if it wants.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ