The current ES 8-Hr chart is below. Today, prices made an outside bearish engulfing candle at the 1.272 extension of the prior wave up. We have been looking for a wave to finish wave minute-v, circle-v. The chart shows a plausible count in the event there is overlap that disqualifies an impulse.
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| ES Futures - 8 Hr - Plausible if Impulse Overlaps |
So far there only look like three-waves-up, labeled as a,b,c of (i). IFF a diagonal wave forms, it could have 62% or greater retrace waves. Again, this is only a plausible count if an impulse does not form. It is way too early to actually call a diagonal. And there are still ways that - if today was a third wave - that a fourth wave could form and still follow the rules. Such a way would be by forming a triangle to avoid overlap.
So, as usual, patience, calm and flexibility are called for until a count that follows the rules materializes. And, more specifically, while there is one eight-hour reversal candle, all such candle patterns need to be confirmed - in this case with a significant lower low closing candle.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
This is where I always get confused and ahead of myself. I had the 3rd wave up (C) in your chart as the ED3
ReplyDeleteI am not paying attention (in this case) to smaller increments to see that the 3rd wave up was clearly a 5 - so could not be EDiii. Then my counts get off a wave.
DeleteYes, and the waves are taking so long in time it gets confusing for anyone. This is understandable. I 'rarely' have to resort to 8-hr charts to illustrate a point. TJ.
DeleteThe Fed just confirmed that BTFP loans will cease making new loans on March 11th as scheduled. This might be the "news" that starts the next retrace wave.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min: a look at the pre-market. Now a 62% retrace. A Flat wave is not impossible here as the downward count could be either a -3 or a -5.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/135cos
TJ
CL 8-hr: first the 'potential' triangle was invalidated. Second, price is back to the daily upper Bollinger Band. Third, price is back to the horizontal price resistance line. Fourth, with the number of overlaps, it's getting very difficult to count further. And, fifth, the count of w-x-y has no longer resulted in a w failure. I would look to see if price can break the lower wedge line, back-test, and then fail the back-test.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ki5ntVld/
TJ
Maybe the triangle is there, just in the x wave position.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/n4ju1zW
Not impossible. For the sake of discussion only, the price-size and time of the (e) wave relative to the rest would seem squirrely. Further, price would not be exiting anywhere near the apex of the triangle?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KIbiYBur/
TJ
...and did not exit with much thrust.
DeleteES 5-min: time to watch this wave down to see if it forms correctively or impulsively.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/135ggk
TJ
ES 5-min: downward overlap on the overnight waves.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/135hv7
TJ
ES 5-min; focusing on the right side of the chart, there is now a 78.6% downward wave in two zigzags. If it, the 78.6% holds, then we might triangle. Alternately, if proper structure is obtained, a downward diagonal might result, with a third shorter zigzag.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/135i4u
TJ
I know this is an EW website, but I believe there is an intersection between charts and fundamentals. This morning's earnings report by Humana was absolutely horrific, as they cut 2024 EPS guidance down to $16, when Wall Street had it between $26 and $30. As TJ tracks the potential end of these final waves, it would make sense that as earnings get slashed, investors/traders begin to realize that this market is built on pipedreams. Then the fun starts.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min: if above 4,908.50, then a diagonal fourth wave would invalidate by OHLC measurement. So far, ok. TJ.
ReplyDeleteCL 4-hr: bollocks. I just noticed in 4-hr crude that this expanding diagonal pattern works, too. Still, nothing until below that wedge line and it is back tested & fails.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8NIP46Fi/
TJ
ES 5-min: downward diagonal disproved by measurement. Possibly in the triangle formation, or upward wave. Too early to say. TJ.
ReplyDeletePutting this out there for consideration. I can make a decent channel for 3 were I have it ending on the chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/9701CHm
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ