Today's action suggests one can't argue with what looks like five-waves-up on the ES hourly chart. The daily chart is below, showing where this wave (i) might fit in the sequence.
The invalidation levels are shown on the chart. Wave (ii) should not go below 4,702, and minute-five, or circle-v, should not go above 4,984 to remain shorter than the third wave in this extended first wave count.
Recall, the CPI reports come out before the market open tomorrow.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
I would not be surprised if ES did this to finish it off.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/s1ywT94
That would be the end of it and a backtest of lower diagonal line.
DeleteSPY 1-Hr: the 'awful' cash count can still hold in this manner, and already has a lower low. It 'may be' a Flat or a 'complex' correction to make a second wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/x5r71mAI/
An exploratory channel is shown but might be modified later.
TJ
how abt a triangle between 4800 and 4690..now c down
ReplyDeleteIt would be way too early to call such a triangle (usually they can't be called until all five legs are "in", though one can get suspicious with four of five in). Further, I 'think' the higher high at SPX 4,798.50 implies a 'motive' wave already. And it can be counted as a five in futures or cash SPY. IF not, the triangle would be a second alternate to a larger flat (first). TJ.
DeleteA larger triangle has been what I've been scouting since 12/20. But I have yet to see a construct that fits the rules, given these five wave moves. Leads me to suspect a tri at one degree higher spanning a month, if not a good bit more.
DeleteIt did retrace the whole thing in less time to than it took to build.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/XoQFWuq
5 waves down on SPX.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/68BbdGmz/
Engulfing candle on daily chart is forming.
DeleteLets see if the trendline hold.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wXchNgGJ/
Now what if 4838 was a truncated 5 on the 8hr?
ReplyDeleteSPY 1-hr: the only purpose of this chart is to show that SPY is below a 38.2% retrace, and show some possible downside Fibs. There is no confirmation yet the down wave is over.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vcVl1Hwi/
TJ
ES 5-min: right now: The Principle of Equivalence says a.b.c is i,ii,iii until it is not. That is, until there is a fourth and a fifth wave lower. The second down wave in futures is 1.618 the first down wave, and it is longer in time (so the two down waves should be of the same degree, or the second down wave is of one larger degree).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6vESg5e2/
Lower lows are still possible until shown otherwise.
TJ
mmmhhh; and now there is upward overlap and a,b,c down is all there is, so far.
DeleteTJ.
on diagonal watch
DeleteYep. The impulsive looking gaps down will continue to be filled...till they are not. Lol!
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ