And moving price sideways. The movement started with a violent wave down as contracting triangles usually do. Today, prices were whippy and best seem to count like this on the ES 1-Hr chart.
ES touches 90% of downward wave and can now qualify for a flat. It can go higher in this wave but is not required to. IF it goes over the top, it may qualify for an expanded flat or running triangle, also.
If we are completing a 5th wave at primary degree or possibly higher, it means the market subsequent decline should be at least at primary degree. Both Marty Armstrong and Charles Nenner are calling for a recession in the second quarter. History suggests that IF the FED hiking cycle is done, a recession is quite likely. Interestingly enough, they both expect a mild market correction. Seems to me a primary degree correction, either 1, 3, 3 or a,b,c should be somewhat more substantial than "mild". Thoughts?
recommend switching to 5-min chart; up wave is great in price but short in time. Down wave might be either a or i. Ways to extend time are 1) triangle b wave if it's an 'a' wave. 2) Double zigzag or flat if it's a 'i' wave. Should have either iii or c after this wave finishes. TJ.
ES touches 90% of downward wave and can now qualify for a flat. It can go higher in this wave but is not required to. IF it goes over the top, it may qualify for an expanded flat or running triangle, also.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 1-hr: Wednesday's prior high tagged. Now a flat or a barrier triangle. TJ.
DeleteUpdated 1-hr chart, below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YdqBUjtD/
TJ
If we are completing a 5th wave at primary degree or possibly higher, it means the market subsequent decline should be at least at primary degree. Both Marty Armstrong and Charles Nenner are calling for a recession in the second quarter. History suggests that IF the FED hiking cycle is done, a recession is quite likely. Interestingly enough, they both expect a mild market correction. Seems to me a primary degree correction, either 1, 3, 3 or a,b,c should be somewhat more substantial than "mild". Thoughts?
ReplyDeleteCycle degree. Already posted my thoughts.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/10/for-life-of-me.html
TJ
In my opinion a depression is coming
DeleteMy monthly charts are topping probably just before the election huge risk of a crash
In the short term I expect a drop next week to either the 10 or 20 dma and one final push to 5000 so perhaps by opex we top for example
ES 1-hr: update. Seemingly out of nowhere. 😆
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tDP5yxf4/
TJ
SPY 2-min: five waves down with a 2.618, alternation, and a divergent lower low can be counted. May go a bit further if it wants.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3L2GacF4/
TJ
Watch the upper declining channel line and see if it gets broken, back tested and fails upward.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/H5xz3KYg/
TJ
Now a 62% retrace.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ToLLvlA0/
TJ
recommend switching to 5-min chart; up wave is great in price but short in time. Down wave might be either a or i. Ways to extend time are 1) triangle b wave if it's an 'a' wave. 2) Double zigzag or flat if it's a 'i' wave. Should have either iii or c after this wave finishes. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min; now there is downward overlap.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/idtQj5py/
TJ
I think downside is probably coming next week to either the 10 dma or 20 dma and then one final push to around 5,000
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.