The SPY cash 2-Hr chart is below. On a shorter-term basis - as we wrote previously - we are tracking a seeming sideways wave as a flat or triangle. As you can see a channel has been added to the chart.
Suspiciously, two gaps open are located above the 38.2% retrace level, and it is possible that one or both could fill in the upcoming week. The 50% retrace level is also shown, and this would be about a maximum for a fourth wave.
Yes, there are still ways price can go over the high again (such as a compound Flat wave), but for now we are watching to see if the local lows are exceeded first.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Why use a 13 EMA on this particular chart instead of 34 EMA for wave counting?
ReplyDeleteBecause there are not 120 - 160 candles. There are only 60. (And 60/140 x 34 is roughly 13-14). The 140 is the center of 120 - 160. So, the EMA-13 is used instead of the EMA-34. TJ.
Deletewhen u have time pls see qqq or nq chart. this move up is bigger than what could have be the 3rd wave up (the prior wave) implying something else going on here
ReplyDeletePls say from what date are you talking; the October low or something more recent? TJ.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/u4zURSoe/
Deletethe wave under 2nd arrow is bigger than 1st. so either the 3rd wave is subdividing or maybe diagonal in play.. but this is not a 5 wave move from october low.
yup, for the diagonal NQ might have to do something like this:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/aIaERwlR/
According to the downward measurement, there is 'just room' for wave ④ to be shorter than wave ②, and still overlap wave ①. But the third sub-dividing cannot be ruled out either at this point - although the odds of it are very less because of the very short wave in price into December. Less than a 38% retrace in Dec 'likely' indicates either an x1 wave or an (a) wave, with the short wave being the (b) wave.
TJ
thanks yes need to keep an eye on diagonal
DeleteI expect the market to sell off most if not all week and the 10 or 20 dma are the targets
ReplyDeleteThen SPX 5000
DeleteAn AFC win in this case the Kansas City favors a stock market crash
ReplyDeleteSince I think a crash is coming this year Kansas City should win
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/superbowlindicator.asp#:~:text=Key%20Takeaways,market)%20in%20the%20upcoming%20year.
There is very little discussion regarding the failure of Transports to confirm the recent new highs. Russell also lagging. In 2000 indices topped in January except NDX which saw the dot.com mania propel prices higher into March. Fascinating how human nature never changes!
ReplyDeleteTJ, can you give where we are in the Long term of NDX
ReplyDeleteNothing has changed in the NDX count. Refer to all the earlier information I have already provided. 'Nothing' has changed. We are still in the wedge. I said a 'b' wave could go over the top, and it has.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XEbW4ste/
P.S. This chart is a log scale chart. I previously provided an arithmetic scale chart. There is no difference in the count.
TJ
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Delete@David; if yolu've studied your Elliott Wave, you know that 'b' waves in expanded flats can 'typically' go to 138% - 150%. We are not close yet. And we don't have to go that high first.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KfkFbYNu/
TJ
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DeleteCrude got rejected at the top of the channel.
ReplyDeleteThis is what I got on ES. I think 3 only made it to the center channel because it was not much of an extension.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/JJGzVPR
Think we got a few squiggles left.
DeleteI think we are finishing or about to finish a b wave in TLT
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: I don't know for sure, but I'm just going with the EWO signature. It doesn't 'look' or measure much like a triangle. Can still go higher.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PBJwVyvq/
TJ
Thanks a lot, it looks 19000-20000 is the target of w3?
ReplyDeleteES trying to hold a .38 retrace of the major move up yesterday.
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: the counts are stretching towards absurdity. The expanding diagonal (or any triple zigzag) is supposed to be among the rarest of formations. Yet, here is another one validated as we speak.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CHiEQsiY/
TJ
SPY 15-min: anyone for an expanding triangle into the FED ? That would explain the crazy 5-min diagonals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ChspaYDX/
TJ
mmm.hmm... 4937 in futures like nothing in the A-H. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ