Based on the overview of the viable paths on the daily chart (which we provided back at this LINK), these are currently the two best paths forward. The first is the pure impulse. The waves look incomplete at this time. Prices should first try to fill out the channel and remain above today's low.
 |
| ES Futures - 8 Hr - Impulse Pattern |
The second path moves minute-iii, circle-iii, to the next peak over to the right, and then looks for that plausible triangle before a last-gasp wave upward of the C wave. It would look like this.
 |
| ES Futures - 8 Hr - Potential Barrier Triangle Pattern |
The waves are choppy enough to consider a triangle, but if the internal (b) wave is really a "five" and not a "three" (as in the first chart), then a triangle may not be the correct structure. As always, the triangle is a potential only until all of the waves form correctly. For reasons of alternation, I don't think a diagonal will work here until/unless wave minuet (v) of minute-v, circle-v should that occur.
Both counts should be considered equivalent by The Principle of Equivalence until they are not.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks ET, I like your triangle idea choppy waves. Volume has been at or below 50 week ma. BTW happy New Year!
ReplyDeleteSPX charts
ReplyDeleteBack above the 20 dma
Daily - Buy
4hr -Buy
But 4hr tops around Monday. A correction should follow. Its size will tell us what's next. Will we stay above the 20 dma or dip below again. The trend is your friend
You can make a case for bullish or bearish. There Is an ascending triangle and an IHS.
The other hand we are very stretched from a bullish perspective.
A bit late to mention this but NDX made a new high and has remained there. The 5th wave did not truncate after all. I can't reference sources right now so forgive me but when the 3rd wave is extended what is the typical length of wave 5 relative to wave 3?
ReplyDeleteAlso I just have to say, these markets are seemingly refusing to top, it is a sight to see.
ReplyDeletesmci on fire
Deletei am going to close my nose and hang on smci for 100 dollars move ie to 400
DeleteOvernight we may have had the b of 5 on the expanding diagonal.
ReplyDeleteIt would have been a triangle.
DeleteTJ, Your idea looks nice on the EWO.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/PRvP1R9
update
Deletehttps://imgur.com/ADcmRK7
Could be today is c of b of a barrier triangle on the daily that would allow last weeks move to be a 5.
ReplyDeleteThis makes some sense since 4984 is the longest the 5 can be.
DeleteNeed more waves but since this could be and expanding diagonal since Wednesday. It alternates with a regular impulse from last week. The two combined could be 1 of a diagonal for 5 on the daily.
DeleteHave a great weekend all.
ES futures intraday : futures are over the high again in what may be the 'b' wave of an expanded flat. A downward correction has not have very much 'time', yet, compared to the up wave. TJ.
ReplyDelete..and yes, it can go further. TJ.
DeleteSP500 .. new all-time-high. TJ.
ReplyDeleteWe never took out the e wave of the overnight triangle, so this could be 3 of c of 5 on the expanding diagonal.
ReplyDeleteI am commenting to much but I think I muffed this up and maybe the impulse was right all along.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/na08bN7
ES 4-hr: this looks best so far. (The b wave is likely busted). But watch that 100% level. If price goes over it, then an extended third wave is possible. IFF price stays under 100%, then a diagonal minute ((v)) is possible too, as it is one degree lower than A.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ayjGSp2Z/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ