Today's up wave was (eventually) a 'wonder to behold' and fits in a third wave position as either a third wave of a fifth wave, or a "c" wave - perhaps of a triangle. We had warned that upside was still possible depending on what the Smart Money did when they got back from vacation weeks. So, now, there is this new channel on the daily chart of the SPY until there isn't.
In the above count a fifth wave must remain shorter than a third wave, since the third wave is shorter than the first. There are no downward candle signals as of the cash close. Today's up wave didn't even make any hourly down fractals after 4 AM. It was a grind, grind, grind, grind & pop wave. The result was the daily ES futures closed over their 18-day SMA again. So, the bias has turned positive with the daily slow stochastic still in over-sold territory.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
The FED has an interesting problem. The debt is now over 34 T with no curb of profligate spending in sight. Yield curve remains inverted. "Tail' ( delta of average vs lowest bid) on Treasury auctions not looking good. Do they have any choice other than monetizing the debt! I am curious to find out if "Smart Money" believes a market pricing in 6 rate cuts in 2024 should be bought. 😊
ReplyDeleteSo far the decline is in channel indicating corrective move.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wp3ERiut/
ES 1-hr: lower channel line now being contacted by price. This smaller triangle, a larger triangle or a Flat are still possible, depending on whether there are breakdowns in price or not. There don't have to be.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yKObjh0d/
TJ
That's what I got, a weak move out of a barrier triangle.
DeleteDitto. Let's see if triangle is penultimate structure, or the banksters pull off one more three wave shenanigan, lol!
DeleteThis recent ES high looks like a b wave.
DeleteSimilar triangle on spx.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Q3thkLFB/
SPY 15-min: might be worth watching a few candles in cash here.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/iNOK30oe/
TJ
SPY 15-min: a cash count line like this is awful .. just dreadful .. but it still works until it doesn't.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hUHNIfKK/
TJ
Overhead gaps apparent magnet...
ReplyDeleteIt looks better in the longer run that it extended. I think we need a few more waves.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/NgdXr2u
SPY 15-min count: this works as is in cash, and there is downward overlap. I would put a wave-counting-stop above the high. If that is taken out, it would be a next wave up. I'll show futures again in a minute.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DX5k5bIg/
TJ
ES 1-Hr: here is the updated count in the futures. Note how the futures have "the right look", including alternation as noted, while cash is dreadful. In this count in the futures, the futures "would not" invalidate with a new high. So, caution is warranted.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8it6f7jX/
Also, I'm hearing futures brokers are again increasing margin requirements in front of the CPI tomorrow morning.
TJ
SPY 15-min is now trading back in the wedge. TJ.
ReplyDeleteThe largest trade in SPXL history (2,511,000 shares) transacted near the highs today along with bearish divergence. It "looks" like a 3 wave move up into the high. Perhaps the CPI will come in hot tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ