The weekly chart of the U.S. Dollar Index is below. There are five minor waves (1-5) down to an Intermediate (A) wave on the left. There is then an expanded flat for what is likely an Intermediate (B) wave.
Notice how the B-3 wave of the expanded flat exactly back-tested the upper down-trending channel line of the Intermediate (A) wave.
(B) waves can be stinky. There can be counted three-waves up to the alternate (B) wave shown in red. But, there can be more waves added on to make a fuller five-wave impulse Minor C wave up in (B). The first target of the 1.618 extension of A-3 on B-3 has been met near the 50% retrace mark. But, if the wave extends, it could make the 2.618 extension shown near the 61.8% retrace mark.
The Payroll Employment Report is tomorrow. Time to start watching closely. Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Not sure if anyone posted this yet....but possible completion of a correction count on the daily for Gold.
ReplyDeleteCircle A Three waves down
Circle B Triangle with thrust lower for Circle C
Circle C should be five waves down and bottom of green box is where the price distance from (A) of Triangle to (B) of Triangle is extended to typical location of termination of thrust lower.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2YqRN9p8/
TJChuck.
There is no valid Elliott Wave 3-wave 'A' wave pattern where the 'B' wave does not also make a 90% retrace (which is called a 'Flat' wave). It is most likely that your circle-A wave is actually a five-wave because the (B) does not overlap with the first wave off the high. A double-zigzag which is two three-wave sequences connected by an 'X' wave is labeled W-X-Y not "three-wave A, then a triangle B". But, then the implications of the double zigzag are additional leg down. Please re-read the Elliott Wave Principle on this topic. This is one of the most common error in web analysis. There are several YouTube videos where the supposed 'trainers' make this same error over and over again. But, the reference is The Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter. TJ.
DeleteThanks TJ... makes sense I need to relook at the circle A wave.
DeleteThat summary by TJ is worth it's weight in Gold. So-called gurus who cannot distinguish among zig zag, double combinations, flats, and PARTICULARLY expanded flat have blown up a lot of novice trader accounts with specious EW counts...
DeleteSo, if the dollar going down, the index go up?
ReplyDeletePossibly but not necessarily. It might affect Gold, Oil, other currencies more. Sometimes it affects stocks, sometimes not. And remember, this is a 'weekly' chart and a turn is not confirmed yet. So it could be weeks or months away. TJ.
DeleteIt is sure hard to imagine gold not eventually going over the ATH when you look at the longer time charts.
ReplyDeleteTJ, Do you recall what month and year those long term gold post were in?
How about a link?
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/08/one-fifth-report-on-gold.html
TJ
Thank you so much!
DeleteSo we could be completing a e wave for your x on the monthly method 2?
Deletehttps://imgur.com/orU69EE
Delete..could be! TJ
DeleteSPY 15-min: here is price after the open. i/a, ii/b still possible but not below the low. i/ii is for the impulse c wave of the fourth wave. a/b is for the running triangle. Degrees to be clarified later.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/c1RSvxlN/
TJ
Looks like ES completed a b wave this morning as well.
DeleteOpening gap lower now closed.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZRHRIxA6/
TJ
SPY 15-min: prior gap (colored area) closed.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7OWEV1Kr/
TJ
Finally got overlap, I think we are working on a contracting diagonal on gold off the low this morning.
ReplyDeletetime frame? TJ
DeleteIt is busted. I was working on a 1 minute and got as far as the 4 and then it just kept drifting lower.
DeleteOnce I added channels everything made more sense. SPX is still within the channels finishing wave c of 4 so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/2LIGUF5Z-SPX-Still-in-the-Channels/
TJ, thanks for all your answering
ReplyDeleteCan you give me the long term NDX?
ReplyDeleteI have published this several times before. You should take the responsibility to update it from here. See the notes on the chart, specifically, if II is a ""truncated zigzag", then wave Ⓑ is 'allowed' to go over the top, but it does not 'have' to.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hbPRuzrM/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ