Something to note - see the ES weekly (closing) chart, below. Be sure to update after the week has closed out.
There is little evidence at this time of any upturn. At the moment, the evidence is to the contrary. And this is on a day when Chair Jay Powell could have soothed market nerves.
On the daily chart, the wave i, up, of the sequence to the recent high - shown in prior charts - was overlapped downward today. This is another negative sign.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
maybe a ld in nasdaq (now the 5th leg down) from the high this year.
ReplyDeleteLost the 18 ma on both qqq and spy today. BB on qqq is 351 and usually it gets there. Thank you
ReplyDeleteI thought this chart might interest some of you. Apart from the crash dates, I've estimated the potential crash bottom levels, and also included the initial angle of descent from the early September red days. This descent angle happens to line up with the most likely crash dates, being 30th and 31st October, and as bad as 1929.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NGR3IHZo/
Interestingly, the roaring 20s followed a credit crunch and recession in 1920-21, just as we've seen a huge credit and market bubble since 2008-09. Nothing new under the sun?
If you're correct, the world is about to change in a way which will be forever in the history books. There's likely pain in the decade ahead from the easy credit of last 30 years but starting it with a 1000 SPX bang is quiet the call. That said, I understand it's happened before and possible now. I hope you're wrong but appreciate your insights and analysis.
DeleteToo early, I think. I doubt we will have that kind of crash here in 2023. I long ago stopped trying to call major tops and bottoms to a day week or month, getting it right to within 2 years is sufficient to have a successful investment life.
DeleteTry looking up the 18 year real estate (debt) cycle. It's interesting.
Its It's just the end of a credit cycle, nothing especially historic about it really. The world is about to change yes, but in ways that most will not envisage. Keep your eyes peeled for strange happenings though, a war is being waged, its about to go hot.
DeleteDan, the top (or a top) was back in January 2022. I'm not predicting a crash now, just highlighting that all the Puetz crash criteria are in place and the economic cycle lines up pretty well with 1929. We will see. Even without a big one, vix short funds should give us a 2018-style boost to vix 50 with a bad couple of days, likely when recent lows are taken out. I'd love vix 150 though....
And according to Puetz these "crashes" typically take 2-4 weeks to complete correct? I just wonder if circuit breakers now prevent these sorts of crashes.
DeleteThe big crashes only take 2-3 days to happen. The 4-6 weeks you mentioned is the prelude to the crash, and the eclipses are a common theme within that period.
DeleteI think circuit breakers will just make any 2-3 day crash more spicy, they certainly wouldn't prevent a such a crash.
Gold update
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/Kuc9Krz
Pls be careful here. The 2-hr GOLD chart can be more simply counted in the following manner following degree labeling.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fjbMsHwQ/
The issues are 1) there is no correction deeper than 38% of the larger waves, 2) so that makes it 'either' the x1 count or the A wave, 3) the B/2 wave is the longest correction in price and time, so it should be the largest degree correction.
TJ
..also the EWO in 123 candles has not yet returned to the zero line indicating a fourth wave (or the opposite, the channel failure). TJ.
DeleteES 1 minute contracting diagonal
ReplyDeletebelow the 4
DeleteIt was leading
DeleteHave a great weekend all!
ReplyDeletea = c off the highs in META? https://www.tradingview.com/x/dIAgDb9D/
ReplyDeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ