We showed this chart in the comments for the prior post, but it is important enough to make a full post of it. Here is a chart of the ES 2-day futures.
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| ES Futures - 2 Day - Overlap! |
Notice that there is now clear overlap between today's bar down and the A/1 wave up. This increases the odds to over 85% that the upward count is only A,B,C and not the 1,2,3. The only potential up wave would be an expanding diagonal, upward, and it does not have the best-looking trend lines. Further, expanding diagonals are extremely rare patterns that is one of the factors that tilts the odds so heavily.
Note: wave 1 in the expanding diagonal upwards 'has to be' moved - by the rules - to the highest bar in Jan/Feb 2023 because expanding diagonals 'may not' by the rules contain flats in the numbered waves. Therefore, any upward expanding diagonal would be a-b-c to 1 (where a is the location of the current A/1). Sorry if that is complicated, but please try to follow it.
We'll say more on the weekend.
TraderJoe
So when I step back and look at the Big picture. This could be a running flat and we could be in the middle of a wave 3 down in a C wave correction or wave i down in a bear market.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/WI0fy6CO-Big-Picture/
No, because the claimed smaller degree B wave (which is improperly marked with a Capital B) is larger in price than the prior down wave in the same direction marked as wave 1. So your count violates degree 'definitions' and this too will result in constant incorrect counts. I fear you may have missed the entire discussion of degree labels.
DeleteTJ
TJ - I've seen some people make the same error by stating the move off the July high is a nested 1-2. Do you think it's either a diagonal or an extended 1st wave instead?
DeleteYea I see that. Sorry I'm jumping the gun. The current chart looks like a correction from 2015 that is almost spot on. And it has the same longer b wave than the 1 wave. How would you count it? I'm trying figure out a way to predict whats coming next but maybe that's not possible.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/bpNpzHvH-2015-Pattern-looks-very-familiar/
Please see the Oct 4th post, and do 'not' reason by analogy. That (2015) was a wave in a bull market. TJ.
DeleteOh, I didn't know we've confirmed that we're in a bear market for sure. I thought there was still a slim chance of one more wave higher.
Delete..slim .. very slim. TJ.
DeleteWhat do people think is the wave since the July high in SPX? I can't pull up an 8 hour chart to get close to 120 candles. There is overlap but it doesn't look like a diagonal at this point on the daily timeframe.
ReplyDeleteDavid? Yesterday's post .. ??
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/10/nq-qualifies-for-expanding-diagonal.html
TJ
..and as I have written numerous times in comments, depending on the index, one can't rule out the nested 1,2, (i), (ii) lower; which might better fit the SPX. I will try to address this on the weekend. TJ.
DeleteThanks TJ.
DeleteDavid, try a triple zigzag. I see each of the down legs as sub-dividing into 3's.
DeleteIn thinking about one of the Fib 3 questions posited in that post, namely whether we completed all of c of 5 or just 1, VIX just might be providing some clues. It revealingly notched a lower high on the market's lower low, strongly suggesting a 5th wave completion. The up-trend line, however, remains intact. A 2 up of C would align well with expectations that a 1987 analogue just might play out. Fib cluster window early November. Phi Mate turn date Nov 27. The one for Oct 16 was spot on.
DeleteES 30-min: from the intrday wave-counting-screen, the futures just closed their overnight gap up. SPY cash has not quite yet. TJ.
ReplyDeleteReminder: US Consumer Sentiment scheduled at the top of the hour. TJ
ReplyDeleteSPY cash gap now closed. TJ.
ReplyDeletePossible diagonal?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/KwJEvaMw-Possible-Diagonal/
Ronb .. if you do not follow the procedures in The Eight Fold Path Method, I will not comment on your posts. The first item is 1) to find the time frame that provides 120 - 160 candles on the chart. TJ.
Deletepls see 1:06 pm below. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: this is a bit of whippy 'no-man's land' at the moment. The blue trend lines are what we have now.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/McJdLbLX/
An upward channel (red) is what could develop, but not below the low.
TJ
ES 15-min: price is already down through the prior low. Here is what you see when you put 120 - 160 candles on the chart for 'the wave of interest'.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1ziMhHxh/
Notice how every apex of the triangle crosses the EMA-34 and prevents a bad count.
TJ
..and here is the wave exiting the triangle.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/o1HvPxxG/
TJ
why do you sometimes use only the EMA-34 and RSI instead of the EWO?
DeleteTriangles don't follow the AO/EWO all that well. The EWO just basically goes flat inside the triangle. Sometimes the RSI helps when there are 120-160 candles, sometimes not. However, when there are say only 60-80 candles - say on a one-minute chart where you can't get any finer with regular quotes - then EMA-13 and RSI can work a little better. You really need those 120 - 160 candles for the EWO/AO. It is tuned to that number of turns as explained in the post on The Eight-Fold-Path Method. TJ.
Delete@david .. here is that hourly SPY example where there are only about 66 candles which is half-needed. So, the EMA-13 and RSI can substitute for the EMA-34 and the EWO.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jGjowLxx/
Note: at the moment (v) = (iii). I'm not saying (v) is done as it might break lower on Monday. But, if it doesn't it's a realistic count as is. If it still breaks lower Monday, then we get the extended fifth wave x(v).
TJ
Note also that ii is smaller than (ii), and iv is smaller than (iv) which follows the degree labeling definitions and progressions of smaller degree waves. TJ.
DeleteGold looks to be busting out of a triangle to the north. I think it is c of a b wave.
ReplyDeleteSPY 1-hr: the day ended with a tad of divergence on the RSI. The hourly only has 66 candles so the EMA-13 and RSI are used.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IpRdLCYu/
Right now (v) = (iii). If (v) is not done and it breaks down on Monday, then wave (v) will become the extended wave in the sequence. But there 'likely' is a triangle in there as shown, so a turn might be expected. Triangles are supposed to appear before the last directional wave in the count. This one is a running triangle, and it is bearish in a bear market - just as running triangles in a bull market are also bullish.
TJ
Isn't wave (v) supposed to be three waves because it is a leg of a diagonal?
Delete@Steven: The C leg of the abc 5th wave is five waves.
DeleteCorrect Tachy..TJ
DeleteThanks. I should probably take a peek at the x-axis. Ha. I thought it was a depiction from Aug. Bit of an analogue I guess
DeleteHi as perhaps you know, I try to count waves on the DAX. It would sincerely appreciated to have your opinion on the following: Can wave 2 take more than twice the time taken by wave 1? Can wave 2 retrace more than 78.60 of wave 1? And last but not least is minor wave b of wave 2 which seems likely to be part ofan extended flat is allowed to exceed 138.60? However there was a reaction on the 123.6 level. Thanks beforehand for your expert advice.
ReplyDeleteI'd need to see your chart. But, yes, Wave 2 can definitely take more time than wave 1. Wave 2 is allowed to go to 99.9% of wave 1, although it is not 'common'. That's all I can comment on without seeing your chart. If you link to it, please do so on the next day's post (already up). TJ.
DeleteT. J can you give us the NDX?
ReplyDeleteGeepers. Will you look at the prior post and stop asking the same question? TJ.
DeleteAI 😊
DeleteTJ,
ReplyDeleteSorry for being lazy and disrespectful and not following the 8 fold method. So, here's my attempt to follow it the best I can. And when I was doing it I was wondering about your "e" wave. So when I was doing this it works better to start the next five waves from your "c" wave as an expanding diagonal but it does work either way. But with the e wave as the beginning I only have 80 periods but with starting with at the c wave I have 144. What would you do? Is it a gray area whether you count it with the e wave or not or does it have to be counted that way?
Thanks for forcing me to be enlightened. I thought I knew enough and I wasn't looking at the oscillator which makes things easier. But I'm going to slow down and triple check.
Thanks for helping me.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES1!/bRn9Z3Ss-Is-wave-4-done/
Also I thought if was interesting that all of the 4 waves were flats after the 3 of 3. Very congested at the bottom maybe winding up to thrust lower one more time.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ