And For Cycle V - By Degree Labeling

So, it seemed the best thing to do now was to revisit Cycle V five and see if anything changes. I spent hours again going over the count. I tried every possibility of extensions I could (x3, x5, x1). I further specifically tried getting the all-time-high to be part of Cycle V. I could not get it to work as the wave is too long compared to other waves. The good news is that the overall interpretation has not changed - at least using the log scale on a monthly chart over the 13-year period. It turned out that the only extension I could get to work was the x1, the first-wave extension. Here is the chart.

DJI Cash Index - Monthly Log Scale - Cycle V Count and Following

The only correction I had to make was to wave x①. Unless interpreted this way, the Intermediate degree waves within Primary ③ are too long in price and time. I tried the expanding triangle count again in 2020. That did not work either. Note specifically that Primary ② is less than a 38.2% retrace - as shown by the Fibonacci ruler - which, as you know, goes along with the x① count. The Fibonacci rulers for waves ③ and ⑤ are shown on the left of the chart.

So, we are where we are. Many people are looking for price to 'go-over-the-top' again. The chart shows "we've already been over the top". The Dow is within limits for an expanded flat Ⓑ wave, after the SuperCycle [III] top. 

If there are three-waves down from the Ⓑ wave top, then a diagonal wave downward may be in progress. It might turn out to be either a contracting or an expanding diagonal. If the mess of a structure from the high is a 'five' then price might impulse lower. If the RSI makes a lower local low, then it may confirm a lower high in August 2023.

Stay tuned, and have a good start to your evening,

P.S. This post follows on directly from yesterday's historical review. If you have not seen that post yet, you may wish to read that one, as well.

TraderJoe