The daily chart of the ES futures is below. There was a cash gap down this morning that made a new daily and weekly low. This movement also broke the prior down (red) daily fractal shown. Price ran into the combination of the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 200-day moving average, and it bounced.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Fractal Break Lower |
The daily slow stochastic is in over-sold territory, so it might be a location where the Smart Money took some profits. So, while the trend indications continue lower, a big question will be if the slow stochastic will embed eventually or not. Until then, things could be bumpy.
As we pointed out earlier the NQ lead month contract (NQZ2023) did qualify for an expanding diagonal this morning. So far, the roll-over contract has not. The ES/SPX remains temporarily nebulous as either a diagonal or as a nested impulse. This should clear up in a few days.
The futures need to be watched in the after-hours to see if this will be the second daily close below the 200-day SMA or not.
Have an excellent start to the week.
TraderJoe
Does it help that the angle of descent in each of the 3 legs since 4686 is increasing?
ReplyDeleteIt seems to be that we are now getting more points lower in fewer bars. So, it 'may' be an initial sign of acceleration. Bears watching. TJ.
DeleteTJ, bulls are watching too. Lol.
DeleteTJ would you be surprised if some of them gaps don't get filled.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/ZZS8OT2b-Gaps-Galore/
ES 30-min (from the intraday wave-counting-screen). ES put in a minor new high this morning; can be counted as w-x-y. Still in fourth wave range.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sTg9FLCf/
Watching the fractals at this point may be of some value.
TJ
..ah; also found a way to count it as just a-b-c with an expanding diagonal c wave; like so.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sg7qNzfB/
..therefore, might 'also' be part of a triangle.
TJ
first down (red) fractal back has been exceeded lower. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: first two down (red) fractals exceeded lower and trend line break. Argues for seeing if the high holds, and for watching 62 - 78% retrace to see if a triangle is forming as a fourth wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mXSX0IY3/
TJ
Looks like we're just finishing wave C of 4.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/OU3j6MRA-5-Up/
TJ I'm assuming I miss labeled the a-b-c and should be w-x-y instead. Is this potential 5 wave up long enough to be a wave C of 4?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/G5Zv0SJJ-5-up/
..can be .. good work. TJ.
DeleteNever mind it just keeps going up. But I would like your comment on my labeling. Got COVID again so I'm spending more time trying to learn.
ReplyDeleteThanks,
I also just noticed the on the ESZ23 that it's right up against the downtrend line. It's starting to run out of room and strength.
ReplyDeleteC of B tomorrow i would think. NQ just finished the B of B
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ