Below is the ES 4-hr chart. I think it is pretty clear that counting in this manner provides for a minute fourth wave that alternates with the minute second wave because the minute second wave is a simple zigzag a,b,c and the minute fourth wave is a more complex failed double-combination w,x,y where the x wave travels below the prior wave minute three.
Further, the most recent lower lows are happening on divergences with the RSI, as shown. This is what impulse waves are supposed to do - show alternation. And fifth waves are supposed to diverge. So, let's say yay to that! Note that the fourth wave would still be in the approximate location of the 382% Fibonacci retracement.
On the upside, I can't help but notice the potential convergence of the black support/resistance line and the potential declining channel line.
CPI is tomorrow, PPI is Friday. Might be whippy. And nothing in the above count prevents lower lows from being made if the market wants to take more time to make a flat wave for 2/B.
Best wishes to all. Keep the thinking caps on and have an excellent rest of the evening.
TraderJoe
While possible, the channeling, and internal wave structure of 1,3, and 5 are not giving this very good odds imho.
ReplyDeleteI am still in the camp that we are in a weekly triangle so all this internal counting is going to be a mess.
DeleteEven if we are in a weekly triangle, 📐, then the A wave down must either be in five waves itself or start off with five waves - according to the rules triangles 'must' have four of the five legs be zigzags. So, above are 'five-down'.
DeleteTJ
ES 4-hr: now up over w-y indicating a likely 2/B or more higher. Can still run some if it wants.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7OabdWfR/
TJ
And I suppose the alternate might be that if another new low is made then the up wave might be a 'z' wave to make even a longer-in-time minute four and better fill out the parallel. But there is no clear evidence of that yet, as any down wave can also be part of a Flat 2/B depending on how it counts. TJ.
DeleteES now below the CPI report. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: so far, non-overlapping "five-down" in a channel to a slight lower low in cash on this time-frame. Can still break lows.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CtxnuNpa/
Overlap of 4-1 was missed by one-tick in futures.
TJ
SPY 5-min: there's a lower low and gap fill. 'Might be' a 'b' wave towards the low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/14Z1K62w/
TJ
SPY 5-min: first of two prior lows broken.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/k9sLztRi/
TJ
SPY 5-min: second prior low exceeded lower, and up to upper channel boundary.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Ntsek3l7/
TJ
How are labeling the lower lows after 5 down. Additional waves seem long to be corrective.
DeleteI am assuming the lower low could only be the b wave of an expanded flat, correct?
ReplyDeleteYou mean like this? 😁
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nvfl9BhQ/
TJ
SPY 5-min: now based on lengths, it is Ⓒ failure.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mwE7P0Ix/
TJ
Indeed!! 🤗🤗🤗
DeleteSPY 5-min: readers might keep an eye on the new temporary three-touch trend line.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pDIYOc1E/
TJ
ES 60-min: another new daily low on the PPI report.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Bloomberg briefly mentioned the poor Treasury auction yesterday during the CPI happy blather and the corresponding rise in yields. Looks like folk are starting to smell a rat! 😊
ReplyDeleteES 4-hr: inside the yellow box could be a relatively rare triple-combo (w,x,y,x,z) which has led to another failure lower. The lower daily band is currently being pushed lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wyNY7DSZ/
But I would still watch how price behaves at/below the band.
TJ
P.S. the purpose of the triple combo would have been to get price up & over to the upper declining parallel, as noted earlier. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: the three-touch temporary trend line held in cash. Add a parallel to it, and continue counting.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kvgUYGgZ/
TJ
One adjustment to count based on news @ 10am ET.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VAOBJej8/
TJ
SPY 5-min: things are getting ugly, with upward overlap. So we may have to consider a larger diagonal with a,b,c to the low of (i), and this wave up as part of (ii).
ReplyDeleteTJ
Here is the potential diagonal idea on the current chart, so we can likely switch time frames to SPY 15-min, and maybe look to 50 - 78%.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9pZTNTba/
TJ
The ALT is going to have to be a fourth wave triangle where 'e' does not overlap i down. TJ.
DeleteSPY 15-min: the waves are getting nasty; watch the trend lines and the channel. May have to re-draw.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6k2fFzkV/
TJ
Tj. No weekend update. Its like beer in summer and coffee in winters.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Thanks 🍻
Delete