Cautioning that we do not know that downward movement is over, we are watching the length of the downward wave on the hourly SPY cash chart to see if a diagonal wave 5 is in progress, as below.
If we are getting a diagonal fifth wave 5, then internal wave (iii) for a contracting diagonal should remain shorter than internal wave (i). And if there is to be an internal wave (iv) it should be shorter in price (and possibly in time) than internal wave (ii). Further, internal wave (iv) should overlap internal wave (i).
It's been some pretty whippy conditions. One might want to check in on the overnight to see what progress is like in either case. There are two alternates. If a diagonal should not play out, then the first alternate is a 'b' wave at today's low. The second alternate is that the contracting diagonal morphs into an expanding diagonal. But, there is not terrific evidence yet for either of the alternates.
Turning for a moment to the ES daily chart - as of the cash close - we see the regular calculation of the slow stochastic is fully embedded below the 20 level and has been for a couple of days.
This bears some watching over the next day or two, as well.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Thanks TJ. Lower bb touched.
ReplyDeleteSPY 1-Hr: opening gap lower closed, and now also upward overlap. Let's see if we get a roughly proportional wave (iv).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uSyQdKi7/
TJ
SPY 1-Hr: lower low and nearing 78.6% of prior down wave.
DeleteI have shown this Dec 2023 e-mini contract a few times over a few months with the high to low to high time relationship. The noticeable early June gap corresponds with two fibs and the bottom of the green uptrend in early to mid September. Wait and see.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/aBHTEH5T/
Nice geometry; good work on that front. TJ.
DeleteES futures: hourly futures have invalidated the contracting diagonal. The expanding diagonal and less likely 'b' wave remain. TJ.
ReplyDeleteweekly 18ma is 4340 on cash. after all this winding up looks like it may get there by tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPX cash sliced through the short term upward trend line from the March 2023 low. Let's see if there's a backtest.
ReplyDeleteThere has been a noticeable change in market character since the recent top, markets seem to care about things it was shrugging off in July.