Using the ES 8-hour chart, we see that there has been a better hit on the lower parallel trend line - mostly likely for a fourth wave, iv, which may not be over yet to the downside. This is the type of structure that The Eight-Fold-Path Method (TEFPM) anticipates.
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| ES Futures - 8 Hr - Likely wave iv |
So, the most-likely path, the one with the slightly higher odds are that a fifth wave up will be made when the fourth wave is complete. The Ⓒ wave of wave iv may need more time as a contracting diagonal wave. And the fifth wave, v, may end on a divergence with the MACD.
Should the parallel fail to hold, instead, and the first wave, i, is overlapped downward, then it is possible to see the alternate as a truncation top shown in red (*). Regardless, whippy conditions are expected to prevail.
Have an excellent start to the day.
TraderJoe
Hi, whats your view on DOW? We won´t get any significant overlap until the 16/6 high. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteThis view of the Dow (futures) published on 18 Jul is still valid by measurement.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/07/a-dow-futures-count.html
TJ
SPY 1-Hr: SPY is just now undercutting the prior lows.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Xsmgy3ku/
TJ
P.S. Watch the 'length' from the high. TJ.
DeleteRecent high would make a nice B wave high on the weekly triangle count.
ReplyDeleteTJ i think a failed 5th wave has to be considered here
ReplyDeleteYes, it's beginning to look that way. Let's see how the day goes. I think the NQ has overlapped on the 8-hr chart. So that would be one sign. TJ.
DeleteTJ thanks for your work. I read your work daily. i just don't respond much.
Deletewhy did you use MACD here and not EWO?
ReplyDelete..because the 8 hr chart only has about 79-80 candles; less than the desired 120 to 160 for TEFPM. I use the EWO when there are 120 - 160 candles. The simple math is explained in TEFPM. TJ.
Deletewhy not use the 4 hour chart then?
DeleteI did that in this prior post.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/07/alternation-likely-obtained.html
Now, we're out to 160 candles on the 4-hr. And it's still not invalid but there have been multiple zero line touches for the EWO. So, it's still a tad ambiguous as you can see below.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xtGBLPa9/
One has to learn to handle a little ambiguity.
TJ
SPY 5-min: let's see if this pattern (using zigzag indicator on actual highs-lows) becomes the classic Elliott wave "running triangle" or not.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/aMlglZdy/
TJ
Also counting possible 4th with a likely sneaky 5th down into the close. 😊
DeleteUpdate:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1N5AjrBc/
TJ
Update: there is a new low proving out either the triangle (or a much longer in time 'b' wave). Let's see if we get the classic 'thrust' out of a triangle with the target as the widest width of the triangle added to the breakdown point. If not, then just a 'b' wave. TJ.
DeleteI've got 5 up off the low...
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: if price gets up over the 'e' wave, the down thrust is ended, and this would look best.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UhQQiSiQ/
TJ
didn't understand. 451 is not far to break as 450.13 closed.
DeleteThe 'e' wave of the triangle was broken upward in the ES futures, overnight. TJ.
DeleteA first for me! Same count as yours! 😊😊😊
ReplyDeleteSeems like a great place to stop and snoop around.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/lDQeTu6
Looks like a contracting diagonal off the bottom.
DeleteNot quite sure if three shorter than 1; looks slightly longer...
DeleteWas a diagonal but was an ending. Seems to be back testing the channel.
DeleteAnother VIX gap higher makes three consecutive days...something's afoot...it would appear....
ReplyDeleteAgreed something is. Waiting to see if it can get a couple weekly closes above the green trendline _Weekly $vix https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZQDmBR8g/
DeleteES 1-Hr: here is a 'suggestion only'. Wave degrees are just for illustration. It would need to play out. Note the 'tiny' 5-min "running triangle" that we described in detail yesterday.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Deb7JabD/
Best to all,
TJ
10 year yield
ReplyDeleteimpulse higher coming this does and will matter
https://www.tradingview.com/x/UK2sietF/
Higher rates impact consumer discretionary spending for obvious reasons. Reduced consumer spending impacts corporate revenues. Consumer spending is 76% of national GDP. Reduced corporate revenues will impact the ability of companies to service corporate bonds. The extended period of low rates saw a lot of bonds floated to fuel share buy-backs. The current hiking cycle will have an even greater impact on equities than prior hiking cycles.
DeleteCould not agree more about direct correlation. Just an observation on the chart. I did not reference the stock market, higher rates will continue to make their effect felt through the economy. I feel sorry for those businesses and those who live on credit, including the US government. Meanwhile, I will just keep rolling my short dated CD's in my IRA. If you notice my posts I am inferring patience with the stock market. We have a lot of mo mo to digest in stocks, all I see now a days are wave 4 "conundrums" = patience.
DeleteNo offense Phil, but I find you entirely incoherent. You make assertions without offering any basis or evidence for your claims. Sorry I even bothered! 😊
DeleteES 1-Hr: here is the "long 2, short 4" alternation alternate. Will still look for others.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3KgYxmEf/
TJ
@MDE_trader. Yes. Illogical and denial of historic reality to argue otherwise. If Moody's follows Fitch Treasuries will be hit hard. The only reason primary dealers buy is the FED promises to take them back. No one else wants them. People talking about FED pivot do not understand why the FEd is raising rates ( NOT inflation!). Fitch may have let the proverbial cat out of the bag. 😊
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day. Comments have been temporarily disabled.
ReplyDeleteTJ