ES futures prices made a higher high after the open, then made a fairly dramatic down wave that did not break the prior wave ④ low. Then went over the high again slightly. As a result, the second step in a trend change confirmation did not occur. Here is the ES 4-Hr chart.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Roughly Equivalent |
The added length from today's waves forces consideration of c = 1.618 x a, or a full-on impulse wave. The expanding diagonal from the low suggests the a wave, while the deep retrace suggests possible impulse. The odds are so mixed, like 50:50 at this moment. It would be great if there was better guidance on this topic, but I, for one, haven't found any. So, we'll just stay on our toes through the long weekend.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Hi TJ,
ReplyDeleteOpinions on this exp diagonal on dow?
https://invst.ly/118k5q
IMHO correction 16/6-10/7 fits better as a lower degree flat, not higher degree 2 in contracting diagonal from 15/3 low.
Thanks
Hi - no reason to think so yet, unless four became longer than one. Hasn't done that yet.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8TOVqJ8Z/
TJ
I am not an expert. but it looks like WTI us working on breaking out from a base per Stan Weinstein methodology.
ReplyDeleteAnd also an ole fashioned cup-with-handle pattern.
DeleteSPY 15-min: running triangle or expanded flat for wave ④. Keep an eye on the lows. Today is the last trading day of the month.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gI7gKU6o/
TJ
Just a heads up for everyone, tomorrow is a big economic data day. BLS payrolls report at 8:30am, S&P Global PMI at 9:45am and ISM at 10am.
ReplyDeleteWorth noting that last week the BLS released their first annual benchmark revision to payrolls for the year ending March 2023 and it showed roughly 300,000 fewer total jobs over the 12 month period than previously reported.
Tracking this big picture count - https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F441hoEbkAANb6L?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
ReplyDeleteShouldn't have (W) inside of ⓦ, as it is too complex. Such structures are not found in legitimate wave references. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.