There's just not a lot of evidence to go on, yet, but the ES 4-Hr chart below can explain the count considering that there was a potential truncation at the high as we noted days ago. Let's call this one the Truncation Count. IFF it is playing out, it is not labeled with a lot of alternates as this count could lead to a serious decline.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Close Only |
Prices accelerated lower today, and the decline just doesn't look complete yet. If the EWO makes lower lower bars then it would help confirm the count. The second wave, 2, is being shown as a running flat wave (Flat-X-Zigzag) which would indicate a very weak market. The most recent downward wave may not be over yet.
As of this writing - shortly before the futures close - price is breaching the lower channel line slightly. In this count wave 2 would be longer in time than wave 1.
The counting is difficult at best. The above is one idea. Nothing to the down side will surprise me for now.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
The series gaps, both up and down, were prescient, it would appear. 😊
ReplyDeleteThanks Tj. What happened to bitcoin? Did it break during marlets or after 4?
ReplyDeleteBitcoin broke on 8 Nov 2021. Am I missing something?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nAoWsQkK/
TJ
Thanks for your work TJ....Always appreciate your expertise at bringing order to chaos......I believe Bitcoin first showed its apex break on April 14, 2021......(the day that Bernie Madoff died......sad but true....)
DeleteHi chuck .. thanks for saying. But this is the chart I have, which puts April one peak lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GsK0YwWX/
TJ
Evergrande: remember these guys? Files for Chapter 15 Bankruptcy in NY.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-evergrande-files-for-chapter-15-bankruptcy-reports-7fe98174?mod=MW_article_top_stories
TJ
Media has been strangely quiet about that one. Now Country Garden is missing bond interest payments. De Ja Vu all over again.
DeleteES Daily - Neck # 2 is slightly broken filling the ES close-to-open gap (in the futures) at that location. Of course, the larger contract-roll gap remains.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/j0kFPszC/
TJ
ES Hourly - this chart is the current count considering 1) degrees, with ii larger than ④, and 2) the EWO where new lows are being made on the 4-hr; and some divergence is showing up on the one-hour.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CH9D18yO/
The down waves look like they're becoming more proportional - now filling out a channel, and it might be an extended first wave, i.
TJ
Elsewhere, I've seen a comment that in this decline, DJI and NYSE/NYA overlapped their spring 1/A highs, ruling out their 1's.
ReplyDeleteYupper, in the Dow, or YM futures, shown, as I have written about before, it's just a matter of whether this ending diagonal is playing out - as it does have the right measurements, and its lower trend line would have been broken already.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vkXMpqdx/
TJ
SPY 5-min: looks like a-b-c inside of 1.382 so far, and downward overlap. Might be part of wave iv (referring back to the ES hourly close-only chart).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/D2EiOg5i/
TJ
SPY marginal higher high might be part of a more complex fourth wave, iv. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: likely a time-wasting double-zigzag to get over to the upper channel boundary. No upward overlap, yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FovNvOZR/
TJ
Yep! Classic OpEx pinning action, lol! Have a great week-end everyone!
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