ES futures started lower in the overnight and - when the cash market opened - both made new lower daily lows. The prior days' up waves did not overlap with the 27 JUL down wave, and so counting of a full non-overlapping impulse from the that date is now possible (see this LINK). As would generally be expected, after the new low on a lower daily Bollinger Band, the Smart Money likely began exiting some positions. The daily ES chart is below.
It is likely the Smart Money would not think to sell additional until either the 18-day line in sand is met again, or until the over-sold status of the slow stochastic is lost (both lines of slow stochastic over 30+).
But another reason for this post is to point out that the 16 JUN high of 4,493.75 has now also been overlapped today with the wave down to 4,482. (See blue down arrow). When counting waves, noting the overlaps is an essential tool.
We did several intraday counts in the prior post which worked out well. If you haven't seen them, you might like to have a look at them.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Because b stopped at 1.382 of a, I am leaning towards this.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/27ni9iG
As far as I can tell that b wave would consume more time than the impulsive down waves (i.e. previous larger degree wave in the same direction, down). So I could see the smaller b wave, not the larger one. TJ.
DeleteThanks Tj. Can you post the link to chart where you had unfilled gaps from 4100. Unable to find. Also just asking does blogspot allows a link to charts on side tabs like posts so the reader does not bother author.
ReplyDeleteThe chart was in the comments and so it isn't searchable. Sorry that Blogspot doesn't have the link feature you would like. I'd like it too. But, that is probably a good thing for you. You should recreate it on the daily chart as an exercise for your growth and development. The key is when the futures don't overlap the 'previous close' by a tick or more. This is called the 'close-to-open' gap.
DeleteWhy should you try to recreate the chart yourself? Because, once you do it, you will never forget 'how' to do it or the importance of the gaps.
And, if you do it, you can post it here and I promise to have a look at it.
TJ
Crystal. Thanks
DeleteWhat would also mess with the mind is if this morning is c of a running triangle.
ReplyDeleteIf that's some type of running correction (w,x,y) look out below
ReplyDeleteIt did get back into the wave it was correcting.
DeleteGaps proved formidable resistance!
Deletenew low rules out a c wave up
DeleteYep. That count busted!
DeleteNow looks like it was part of a 4th with 5'diwn underway. Stark volatility divergence...
DeleteI think we need another low.
DeleteInteresting DJIA divergence from SPX and NDX...no new low...so far....
DeleteES Contracting diagonal since around the beginning of the month?
ReplyDeleteSo, it used to be that broker's curtailed day-trading margins almost solely around FED meetings or election results. Now, they're doing it around CPI/PPI reports as I was just notified. This kind of action has got to have some impact on the market mechanics at the time, and likely short-term wave counts. I'm not reading too much into the volatility today yet; we'll see where things stand after the close.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Nastiness
ReplyDeleteTraps in all directions
DeleteI actually like the volatility! Scalper's paradise! 😊
ReplyDeleteFlagging action in futures hinting at possible nested 1,2s off today's high.
ReplyDeleteI can't make anything work other than a running correction. If its very weak, it topped today not able to make the upper channel line. If it has any mojo left, I would think that is the target. Still a weak pattern none the less. The EWO seems to agree.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/tknsByO
See the new post which is now up. Best to you. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ