Today was a gap up at the open to complete a fifth wave up, ⑤, shown on the SPY cash 15-minute chart, below. Over the weekend, we clearly indicated this could happen. It did. Then prices ground sideways to higher for the rest of the day making two marginal higher-highs.
It is possible there is a larger flat in the making (a-3, b-3, c-5) as a corrective wave lower, to take up more time and to move prices a bit lower than the initial correction. If not, and prices gap up and stay up tonight, then it is possible to have an extended first wave at the current wave ⑤ marker.
The price movement is pretty choppy, and even if there is a c-5 wave down tomorrow to finish a flat, it might be hard to handle as most of it might be made in the overnight (by the night desk) again.
In a larger hourly time frame, today's marginal higher highs argue for either an eventual high beyond the hourly expanding diagonal a wave we showed in the prior post, as a c wave, or else a triangle in progress on that time frame as, so far, it is a 78% retrace.
Volume is shrinking a bit as some people already head out on holiday, and so the chop may continue.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
From the 18 Aug lows, this looks like (on QQQ) an upward zigzag correction. AAPL leading the way. GOOGL showing signs of life after ChatGPT. NVDA perking up. EOM cash inflows coming up at the end of the week.
ReplyDeleteA plausible rally target for QQQ (now near 371) would be the upper BB around 376.
DeleteSPY 15-min: looks like one of the markets favorite structures, so far as an x1 wave; with a shallow retrace and 3 < 1 , so far. (Degree labels just for relative illustration).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/iBRdNBiK/
TJ
With the upward overlap of the August 4 low (4474.55) in the SPX,
ReplyDeletecan we now rule out the possibility of this upward movement from the August 18 low (4335.31) being a 4th wave?
And instead infer that this must either be a correction against the July 27 high (4607.07), or a new impulse?
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/TuFeND4y-Upward-overlap-in-SPX-Index/
What if this is b leg on tri 4?
DeleteI vote for the correction agaist the July highs. September is usually a miserable month for stockholders. We won't know until the end of Sep if the Fed will raise again, so the market faces uncertainty. Continued high interest rates risk a financial accident.
DeleteRight now, the correction against the July high seems most likely. We have a wave structure up to over a 50% retrace. And there is no 'assuming' the upward wave stops until there is some evidence for it. TJ.
DeleteSPY cash 2-min: triangle?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vBl30Rzf/
TJ
SPY cash 2-min: nice! now as far as I can tell we are in the fourth wave of the expanded wave x1 sequence. There's no telling how it will form, but wave 3 maintained it's length criteria.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ev0g98L7/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ