Below is a portion of the ES daily chart. As the Fibonacci ruler shows, the down wave since the 27 JUL high is longer in price than the down wave to the 23 JUN low, the one shown with the down (red) triangle for a daily fractal. This means, according to the rules one should eliminate the contracting diagonal from contention for a wave count because the fourth wave in a contracting diagonal must be shorter in price length than than the second wave.
Nothing, however, yet rules out any of these plausible scenarios: 1) the truncation at the high (*) and the continuation of a larger down wave, 2) a further rebound up in a second wave, 3) the formation of a long drawn-out summer triangle as the Bollinger Bands contract, followed by a higher high.
Clearly more information is needed before the count can become more definitive. At least one option seems to have been taken off the table. Yay!
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
ES 30-min: here is one additional chart in the overnight from the ES-30 min wave-counting-screen. The count is 'plausible' not conclusive. Watch the lower trend line (usual back-test, then fail required), and the invalidation level for the diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/okqtwu1m/
The count is an impulse a, and diagonal c - which, if confirmed, would have good alternation.
TJ
Spot on. Thanks tj.
DeleteES 60-min: now after the three-waves-up in the channel on the left, is a wave down on the right to >90%. This obviously could be a flat in the making, say for a larger second wave, but it could also be 4 in the down sequence, with the prior low as 3.
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Watch the new channel and the low to see if this wave impulses or not.
TJ
SPY 15-min: now below the prior low.
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TJ
Not off the table. All I am saying at this point is that this count can be included in the set of solutions. At 100 candles, TEFPM works, and there are divergences on EWO.
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There are other solutions too, at this point including just 1-2 from the truncation high.
TJ
ES 2-Hr: one plausible count. There are some more, including just 1-2 from the truncation high. But, there are some divergences creeping in.
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TJ
Thx, measuring on the phone is not ideal.
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: there is another new low, and on 5-min might be five-waves-down.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4BwZ9GNJ/
TJ
SPY 5-min: might be counted as five-down with a triangle like this.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/w5nobPS6/
Nothing says overall down wave is over yet.
TJ
SPY 5-min: looks like we at least have a local low. Triangle 'e' wave high has been exceeded, and triangle could have been before a last wave. So far, holding off the low.
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TJ
SPY 5-min: hasn't happened yet, but it may be that any higher high results in "five-up" with a running triangle for four.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7mToFhya/
TJ
thar' she goes...
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GPkjVmDH/
TJ
SPY 5-min: the classic extended fifth when three & one are almost equal (but three slightly longer) ?? Looks like ..
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PnXGZItf/
TJ
A new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ