The ES 4-Hr chart has only 83 candles since the truncation high (red *) and therefore it is a little hard to be more certain of the count yet. The chart is below, and the rationale is beneath the chart.
 |
| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Tentative Count |
If the lowest trough low of the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO or AO) is reserved for wave ③ of iii, then the first divergence may well be wave iii. The waves are nicely in a channel and today's up wave contacted the EMA-34. Further, at present wave iii is 1.618 x wave i. And using this approach there are no degree violations that I can detect.
The best alternate is that wave red iii is yet to come with a further lower low, perhaps breaking towards the 2.0 or 2.618 extension. That remains to be seen. Surely, a further new low that only nicks the bottom could be the wave Ⓑ of a flat for wave iv to provide alternation for the failed double zigzag of wave ii.
Let's see how it goes. Have an excellent start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Maybe up to es 4059 area then a drop to 3932 area for the v down. Then another 420 up (with a bunch of luck puts us around 4340. Who knows. Seems like a count below 3943 at least. Hopefully not below 3869. Hopefully
ReplyDelete3900 was important for months, I'd be surprised if we don't tag that in a day or two before a larger bounce.
ReplyDeleteThe 2hr chart has about 160 candles. Why count from the truncation?
ReplyDeleteGDX daily chart (105 candles off the low), 50% retracement hit.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rSC5CxF3/
TJ, Not very impulsive from 4024.5, I am moving to your count. I like how the 3 sneaks under the channel. Thanks again.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/oN8mnk9
SPY 15-min: possibly waves in a triangle as they are very difficult to count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yDGwvZOk/
TJ
18ma weekly has held it up, not sure for how much longer. Losing the 200 on the daily will be noticed by many
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: at the close yesterday's gap was filled, making a lower low and demonstrating that the contracting diagonal downward was 'leading'.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AM6bPL98/
Now watch 78.6% level for a triangle or the low for a Flat wave.
TJ
Running Triangle?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/yp7nC8B
Did come back into the wave it would be correcting.
DeleteThink we are in 4 of 5 or 4 of 1 of a five.
DeleteES 1-Hr: another triangle type; might agree more with cash. Price is already down through the low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mWqYv16M/
TJ
SPY 1-Hr: now also qualifies as barrier triangle (downward) or Flat, upward. Watch the internal counts.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/D3Qv5gdq/
TJ
Is a barrier triangle valid where wave d is (more than a point) lower than wave b?
Delete@Kelly O .. yes, it is. It is the only type of triangle where that is allowed according to Precther. That said, I do not like the "look" of the triangle with 90% waves, and therefore, it may be iii at the 'b' wave low, and a Flat to follow with a five-wave or three-wave up sequence. Very difficult to say. "Welcome to The Fourth Wave Conundrum - which happens at every degree of trend." TJ.
DeleteHere's another example from the real-time SPY 5-min chart. We don't know if this triangle will hold upward, or whether it will devolve downward into a flat or expanding diagonal lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/g9xT1l3x/
TJ
It's "The Fourth Wave Conundrum, and it happens at every degree of trend." TJ.
DeleteThank you!
DeleteHere's a good example of that 'innocent' potential triangle just devolving downward.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RvYUzd8O/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ