Today was the FOMC rate announcement of 0.25% increase and the press conference that followed it in which Chair Powell noted that disinflation expectations are somewhat beginning to become anchored in the public. On the dovish result & tone in the meeting, the market bolted to the upside in an impulse. That impulse is shown below on the 3-min chart of the ES futures.
The impulse portion contains 22 candles (Fibonacci 21 + 1) or if you measure it on a five-minute chart contains Fibonacci 13 candles. It also contains a running triangle which helped me measure for the fifth wave. The waves are counted with degree labeling in mind.
If yesterday was 'five-up' & today was 'five-up', then for a corrective wave, the move might end here on another MACD divergence on the 4-hr chart. Or, if a further impulse is to be made, a further up wave needs to be looked for.
There are so many overlaps on the 4-hr chart of the ES that the high and the low of the impulse shown above are important. Let's see how it goes.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Your wave 3 is 35.75 pts. (4093.25 - 4129.00)
ReplyDeleteYour wave 5 is 36.75 pts. (4126.50 - 4163.25)
Wave 3 can't be the shortest wave in an impulse, therefore, that's not an impulse.
Using broker quotes it was correct. Trading view might be off. TJ.
DeleteI don't know anything about broker quotes or Trading View, Real time data for ES comes from the CME. Real time data for SPY comes from ARCX. In both cases, the actual real time data from both exchanges show that your wave 3 is the shortest wave.
DeleteHere is precisely what I did at the time using MotiveWave and my broker's quotes. As you can see it was a 'tie' between three and five. And there are no MotiveWave errors or warnings. And MotiveWave 'always' warns if wave three is too short.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jnEr4rFX/
That's it. I'm done with this topic. It is what it is.
TJ
As I suspected, a chart is only as good as its data source, and the Trading View chart has bad data. You can easily verify time and sales from the CME website.
DeleteThose are CQG quotes from the CME provided thru my broker. Get real.
DeleteTJ
..and see below @ 09:28 am. TJ.
DeleteThanks tj. Isn't Triagle invalidaion still at 4180?
ReplyDeleteYes, it was & see below @ 12:16. There is a new post started that it explains it.
DeleteTJ
Contracting diagonal?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/FsLagzm
I saw a pretty bullish wave analysis yesterday. The analyst counts a leading diagonal where wave 1 is also a LD. Is this acceptable? I had never seen it before.
ReplyDeleteHere is the ES hourly chart. There is clearly a higher high, making yesterday a longer impulse in price than wave ((1)); thus, we 'should' conclude it is a "((3))".
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/lGmY5R3m/
There is an alternate involving a triangle for yesterday's FED low. See if you can find it on the 4-hr chart.
TJ
There is also some possibility of wave ((4)) extending in 'time' to become an expanded flat to provide better alternation with ((2)) and help the cash session market catch up with the count. This is 'plausible' but not required.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GPco9SzC/
TJ
Is this the triangle? (Marked in red bold red lines - not labeled)
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KUpdvoPj/
@MT .. yep! Good job, and it overlaps the prior high to follow 'the rules'!
DeleteTJ
I think that the big expanding diagonal odds are lower than a snake belly. It had its chance and has broken out of the 2-4 line with a backtest. I will keep counting, but what a mess. The only thing this market has cared about for over a decade is if someone is adding liquidity and that line has turned sideways to up.
ReplyDeletebig picture i don't even know what we're in. Bull market or bear market rally? it's a rip you face off rally and looking impulsive (3800 area looked corrective). on other hand, some fundamentals look poor: disposable income lowest since great depression, 475bps rate hikes really have not hit the economy yet.
ReplyDeleteMETA - their earnings were ok but not knock it out of the park. stock up 25%. headscratcher
Agree, see below @ 12:16, and the new post started for the next day.
DeleteTJ.
ES is close to the 100 and weekly BB, and just hit the 18ma on the month. If they can get past all that, my hat is off to the bulls.
ReplyDeleteAgree, see below @ 12:16, and the new post started for the next day.
DeleteTJ.
Based on yesterday's and today's price levels, my weekly downward count now has a revision. There is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ