IFF it's an expanded flat, the Fibonacci people ('Smart Money' ?) nailed it at c = 2.0 x a when added to b on this 15-min chart of the cash SPY.
And if it's an ending diagonal it does meet the rules. But if it's a ending diagonal, then the start of the diagonal should be taken out in less time than the diagonal took to build. The reverse, of course, is that the local count is a-b-c down to the low, and the diagonal might be leading.
There are not too many other conclusions from today yet other than "while there are lower highs, lower daily lows are needed to better establish a down trend". Let's see how it goes.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Wave down in YM looks pretty good as a LD....
ReplyDeletePossible Triangle?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MHv3hige/
Looks like we may have begun a new uptrend in long term yields. Walking up the upper BB. SloSto could embed over 70. If so, Mr. Stock Market is not going any higher until the yield trend reverses. So maybe we won't get that near-term DT bull market signal after all.
ReplyDeleteChart: https://schrts.co/cZnQJTBs
SloSto embed over 80, that is.
DeleteSPY 5-min: as far as I can tell, this is the two-day cash count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LIxZFKkk/
TJ
SPY 5-min: and now that there is a definite new high, the count can be simplified in this manner, eliminating two diagonals and only leaving one.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OywmEP9p/
TJ
Thanks Tj.
DeleteYM has taken out 33827.50...
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: according to the opening quote the start of the second (larger) diagonal has been exceeded lower in 'less time'. Monitor the high and see if 62 - 78% holds.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/lVmVLMqO/
TJ
ES Daily - 18 day SMA has been contacted.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QImZwpZk/
TJ
VIX (cash) Daily - thanks to yesterday's move there is no longer an unfilled gap at the low. Chart below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QkyPi2XS/
TJ
SPY 5-min: down wave makes 90% of the low, allowing a true flat, or possibly if it wants to go down further, an expanded flat. TJ.
ReplyDelete..and now five-waves-up to a new local high; working on a Flat of 'some degree' meaning, it 'could become a compound flat to gather power if it wants.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1Hu95nCt/
TJ
SPY 5-min: new channel and 61.8%+ attained.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/iFa2EhMg/
TJ
SPY 5-min: channel back-test appears to be failing.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bCs4graC/
TJ
SPY 5-min: secondary back-test of original channel, 78.6% retrace and a new trend line (blue dashed) to monitor.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hS4HKa3R/
TJ
SPY 5-min: just fyi - now at Fibo 55 bars since the morning low. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: first ((X)) wave exceeded lower (slightly). And a new blue dotted trend line added.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JyOsuSot/
TJ
on SPX cash monthly chart - spx hit the 18dma at 4,186
ReplyDeleteI think you meant 18 month ma.
Deleteyes good catch JC. that was a test. you passed ha
DeleteSPY 5-min: downward overlap and picking up speed.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bWtiCrgE/
TJ
SPY 5-min; prior low exceeded lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/y36PKwJW/
TJ
Possible outside down day on ES daily
ReplyDeleteHi TJ...Zooming out a bit and referring to the count from your Feb 9th post, can the S&P 500 cash form a diagonal for the Y leg?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Hi Andrew, such a thing is possible, but then the W-X-Y would be relabeled as A-B-C; still as a Flat wave, because a diagonal 'Y' would really be a five-wave diagonal C wave, right? TJ.
DeleteAhh right.
DeleteI like this count because it allows for a bit more time to pass before a subsequent swoon in 2nd half of March (50 bp hike? Another inflation surprise?). Using previous angles of attack in this diagonal, the converging lines suggest a peak around March 20th near the August highs.
See the next day's post, which is now up. TJ.
DeleteET, This may have been covered but any problems with ES being in a four since 09. On the monthly we have returned to the zero line on EWO?
ReplyDeleteYes, this was addressed way back in January 2022 with this post. What comes after SuperCycle [III] ?
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2022/01/year-end-review-of-s.html
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ