With all apologies to the Cher lyric, the Dow's count was bothering me just a little bit. I had started counting an expanding diagonal, and then the wave lengths appeared to get out of kilter. So, I went back to it this morning and made another 'hidden' discovery. If you remove the truncation wave at the very top, as we did with the S&P 500, then all the lengths for the diagonal work out! Here is the weekly chart.
And, if you look at the location of wave Y, it not only made the 78.6% "deep retrace" expected after the diagonal, but arrowing back in time, you see that wave (2) ended up at the location of the prior 4th wave. That is really awesome. Further, the Y wave did not fail to make a new high over the W wave in the Dow like it may have in the ES.
Now, that is finally a count that makes some sense, and it agrees with the 21 week-34 week Fibonacci timing we showed on the ES futures (S&P 500).
To show why this count is even further justified, here are the weekly charts of YM Futures, AAPL, TSLA and MDY (Mid-Cap 400).
All of these charts show the diagonal. In fact, it's almost impossible to count them any other way. Note that the MDY has very similar characteristics to the Dow, and it is respectably close to its prior fourth wave, as well.
It looks like the proof is in the pudding. The slightly lower low for the Dow and the MDY should indicate that the diagonal is leading. But, for that we need to see that low broken again. Now the question becomes does the Dow live up to staying within that new smaller down channel on the way lower on that first chart, above.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend,
TraderJoe
Or it is a double zig-zag... expanding leading diagonal good luck with that.
ReplyDeleteIt's virtually certain that the 'leading diagonal' already happened and is "in the market" because in the "ALTERNATE" if price goes over the top again, then the wave after it is a truncated (C) wave. Remember, the diagonal 'could be" (1) or (A). But every other indication from the other charts and indexes is that it is there whether you want to recognize the evidence or not. Chart below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5FR6cn4d/
TJ
Hi Joe, hope you had enjoyable holidays. Off subject question here if you would be kind enough to indulge me. In looking at weekly charts of TLT and the 30 yr treasury futures ZB is appears as if we have at least 3 waves down and possibly 5. I'm not sure how to count the last 2 counter trend bounces. Would you be kind enough to share your thoughts on just the big wave count?
ReplyDeleteHi PT - you, as well. If you plot the weekly US10Yr Yield and the EWO, you'll see the EWO in 130 candles is back down near the zero line in what should be the signature of a fourth wave (4). Thus, this is my feedback at this time.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nJBEw1cs/
TJ
Thank you, that clarifies things greatly. A follow up if I may. Since blue (4) was an expanded flat does blue (5) have to exceed Black B-3 or must it only exceed Blue (3)
ReplyDeleteEverything is probabilities, but it is likely to exceed B-3. TJ.
DeleteThank you Joe. So don't fight the fed LOL.
Delete2 hr chart - can that be a leading diagonal with 5 finishing today or tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteIF it's a diagonal - which it may well be - then it probably counts as 5-3-5-3-5 with the ((5)) leg as the 1.618 leg.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MUykBENa/
TJ
price is already near 62% retrace. TJ.
DeleteAh ok thanks, that's helpful
DeleteWMT breaking out above its Feb 1 high ...
ReplyDeletehttps://schrts.co/haMSiVbK
On a daily chart Ira (uses the Goldman Sachs definition) says that there must be two days above the upper daily Bollinger Band closing in the top 1/4 of the range to qualify as a 'breakout'. TJ.
DeleteZooming out a bit on SPX, the .618 retrace of the entire move down to (1) is 4,367...wouldn't that be a nice place for Y / (2) to end? Is there any technical reason that it couldn't or shouldn't? Can it not exceed the prior W wave level (4,325)?
ReplyDeleteIt is written above the Y exceeded W in the Dow. So far, the ES has not done so. TJ.
DeleteSPY 15-min: it's not fatal yet, but SPY is beginning to lose momentum on this time frame. Keep an eye on the down (red) fractal at ~411.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/c2hBrP7d/
TJ
As I said, the loss of momentum was not fatal. Now there is alternation between waves ((2)) and ((4)) of a potential 'c' wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BUtTAvaj/
TJ
Now, for a good down wave, should break the ((2)) - ((4)) trend line in 'less time' than wave ((5)) took to form; then travel below wave ((4)). See blue line in above chart. TJ.
DeleteReminder: tomorrow morning (08:30 ET) is the CPI report. TJ.
ReplyDeleteNew post is started for the next day. TJ.
ReplyDelete