The diagonal possibilities are likely invalidated as of this morning. That makes the downward count potentially more bearish - eventually, not yet. Here is the revision on the weekly chart.
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| ES Futures - Weekly - Count Adjustment |
The down wave from the high, excluding the truncation bar (red asterisk *) is a regular non-overlapping impulse with wave 4 shorter than wave 2 in price, time & complexity for it's alternation. It is possible the pattern is attempting to regain the 50% or 62% Fibonacci level. The MACD indicates a non-divergent low for (1), a divergent low for X, and a return to the zero line.
The chart is read as, "a trending impulse Intermediate (1) wave down consisting of five Minor degree waves, and corrective Intermediate (2) up, consisting of a complex flat wave". There were a Fibonacci 22 (21 + 1) weeks down, and more than that in bars to the upside.
If correct this suggests a more bearish outcome if and when Intermediate (3) gets underway downward. Again, this chart attempts to adhere to all definitions of degree labeling. Within the last minute ((a)), up, and ((b)) down of Minor Y, there may be a Flat wave.
Have an excellent rest of the day.
TraderJoe
on a candle chart, a = c comes in at 4435. quite a bit of overhead supply exists for bulls to contend with
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1VsjGJeI/
Here are the ES futures 5-min since 07:30 this morning, chart is a little behind.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/-6fpd
TJ
ES 5-min: The prior low has already been broken watch for overlap as a warning and see if the high is maintained.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/-6gke
TJ
ES 5-min: downward overlap has occurred. Warning. TJ.
Deletesomeone pressed sell
ReplyDeleteES 60-min: backing off to the ES hourly, this looks like a completed impulse in a wedge. Monitor the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/-6gne
TJ
ES Daily: I think those that counted the contracting diagonal on the way up, got it correct. Here's what I see in the count since the X wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/-6h5l
TJ
1. If this transpires as counted then it will destroy everyone sucked into the "breakout" narrative. (which seems to be.... well, everyone). It would also need an event to stimulate the downside I would think. Though that may just look like "chop" or "consolidation" until the third wave of (3) shows up. Maybe that would be the "event".
ReplyDelete2. Can (ii) of ((c)) be considered a "sharp" even though it is minuscule in time to (i) and also only a 23% retrace? And if it can be considered a sharp, should we expect a triangle or complex (iv)?
There is already a 'flat' four in progress based on the overnight. We got to 95% of the prior high. Other than that I am not a clairvoyant. I count waves. 1) It could be debt ceiling or a default, 2) It could be charging a former president, 3) It could be effects of the Ukraine situation, 4) It could be another country problem (China/Taiwan, North Korea, ) 5, it could be complications from the British strikes. In other words, there's nothing going on in the world. TJ.
DeleteI appreciate the humor ;)
Delete; )
DeleteES 2-Hr: here is the local geometry so far as we have it before the Payroll Employment report tomorrow.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/t6gi88Um/
Price can be sideways/whippy, and it can definitely go 'over-the-top' tomorrow if it wants to for alternation with the sharp wave (ii). It already made a wave which has characteristics of going 95% of the way to the top, reminiscent of a Flat wave. This 'could' repeat a couple of times or go over the top.
TJ
TJ,
ReplyDelete-- 2 and 4 would both be :3 irregular waves albeit 2 is a complex :3. Is that still accepted as wave alternation?
-- Can X (4327/3502, Aug-Oct) be counted as a :5 rather than a :3? That is, if a :5, then given px and time of the upleg since 3502 Oct low, degree labelling would suggest potential alternate of 4808/3502 being a large :3/ZZ/(A) and we are now in :3/(B) deep retrace. Or, if :3, then 4808/3502 a leading expanding diagonal (short 5th wave) which also suggests a deep retrace.
Appreciate you guidance.
1. Yes, acceptable alternation as they alternate in three of the four categories (time, depth, complexity) just not shape.
Delete2. Yes, X can be a five, but doesn't have to be. Remember, the DOW (YM) futures did not make that final low like the ES did (see link below). So, that makes me think it was a 'C' wave that truncated.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FNPGRzjc/
3. All depends on whether X is :3 or :5. Sorry, can't be more help there.
TJ
I know your big picture says we have major top and you need an impulse lower, but it is better to count the move as what it is double zig-zag - https://invst.ly/-6lm-
ReplyDeleteNo because you have a new low after your final 'c'. Are you just going to ignore that? And that's just 'one' reason. Please don't post here any more. TJ.
DeleteThanks Tj.
ReplyDeleteSomeone shared Neely podcast and count few days back. Can you please share again.
Here is the link again, for what it's worth.
Deletehttps://youtu.be/6u4kj_6zRpw
For example, look at how the GOLD forecast doesn't work out.
In the future, please go to his site and find his videos under Free Resources.
TJ.
Thanks Tj. I do not follow Neely as he goes overboard.
DeleteOverboard is putting it lightly
DeleteES 2-Hr: here is the situation shortly after the Payroll Employment Report. There is more economic data later in the morning (09:45 - 10:00 EST).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Gjc8gsPB/
TJ
Thanks, TJ
DeleteSPY 5-min: here is the cash open, so far, and some 'snarky' commentary.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hXuxghDS/
TJ
A new fractal appears at the 09:45 ET high. Monitor it.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2EuS4LkP/
TJ
That fractal has now been exceeded higher. Draw tentative channel up. Looks for possible triangle or Flat wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7REEiQHo/
Look and monitor for down (red) fractals to see when they form.
TJ
New down (red) fractal at the 10:05 am low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/K7EuIXc9/
Slight channel breech to the upside.
TJ
New up (green) fractal at the high. Gap target reached within -0.07.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hSrJRTQl/
Looks like :5, up.
TJ
FTSE all time high.
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: new down (red) fractal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OtbgagYG/
TJ
All the money in the world (and the associated algorithm) does it again, and the gap is covered.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Ajdx1juM/
TJ
Last up (green) fractal moves to the minor new high.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7QPU965F/
TJ
First down (red) fractal back has been broken lower. TJ.
DeleteNow a downward retrace of 38.2%. Good enough for a "b" wave, but can go further if it wants.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/h7aAQp1V/
TJ
SPY 5-min: now widen the channel out, and mark the new down (red) fractal at the low, and see which fractal breaks next. If the up (green) fractal breaks, then likely a flat or expanded flat wave is occurring in cash.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kCn7azF6/
If the down (red) fractal breaks, then perhaps a triangle is under construction.
TJ
Is there any problem with X being 1 in a larger diagonal?
ReplyDeleteAs I responded to novice @ 8:53 pm last night, it all depends if that wave is a :3 or a :5. TJ.
DeleteSPY 15-min: here is the 'possible' triangle under construction as noted at 12:34 pm.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nTJkDj6N/
TJ
SPY cash triangle invalidated. On overlap watch. TJ.
DeleteJust a double-zigzag on the cash close, so far.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3eDkwNQU/
TJ
TJ based on your last chart. w-x-y you're thinking one more rally to 4250-4300 to complete the rally ??
DeleteSomewhere around there is a 'likely' outcome. Not guaranteed. See next day's post when it is up.
DeleteTJ
@Jim S The next day's post is now up. TJ.
DeleteHello Tj,
ReplyDeleteCan you update your counts on Gold please.
See next day's post when it is up. Thx. TJ.
DeleteThe next day's post is now up. Gold is in the second part of the posting. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ