This morning the ES futures made a lower low. The wave structure in the downward direction is choppy and overlapping and it may be a Ⓑ wave, or part of one. It may also be counted as an expanding diagonal from what is currently labeled as the Ⓐ wave.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Ⓑ or iii |
As a result, there is no reason yet to stop counting downward - but there may be soon. With only 95 candles on the chart for the wave of interest, lower lows could result and make a more apparent red wave iii. Five waves up today could not be confirmed by the end of the cash session. The Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) is not yet above the zero line.
Looking at the ES daily chart, below, the daily slow stochastic (regular calculation) is fully embedded.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Embedded Stochastic |
Price also got quite near the 100-day SMA. The combination of the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 100-day SMA may provide some near-term support.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
ES 2-Hr: overnight the price hit the 100-day SMA. The down count is a real mess. This is my best stab at it. Yes, it can go a bit lower. Watch the upper parallel for signs of a reversal upwards, and possible start of a 'c' wave, up.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LFSSGO1B/
TJ
Not on the computer but looks like another running triangle from 8:30 am to 8:00 tonight.
DeleteHere it is.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/Cf6IMiZ
It is my contention that we are in a very large triangle that is why the counting is so difficult.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/NcYoTd5
ES 5-min: this pattern would qualify for an expanding diagonal above 3,951; at 3,947 now.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Rz9X7dhn/
TJ
..now above prior high of 3,948. TJ.
DeleteES 5-min: 3,951 has been crossed upward in real-time (chart is behind). Five-waves-up :5 can be claimed. Will show chart again when it catches up.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BAh42cSv/
TJ
Here is the updated chart, showing wave ⑤ longer than wave ③. Wave ⑤ can extend if it wants, but not below wave Ⓑ. Very whippy.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gZw0kRA4/
TJ
they say don"t short a creeping market but somehow i feel like the bottom may drop out any minute
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min cash: has a higher high after it's diagonal, which is definitely leading.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tIs6R9sj/
Gaps filled. A 1.618 wave, or more, is possible. Draw new up channel.
TJ
Another 'five-up' or alternatively diagonal has converted to impulse. For the impulse, move the ii/b to the right, and count ii as w-x-y. There is 'no' overlap.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vLeIUe9P/
TJ
ok .. clarified; has to be the interior count, as the follow-on wave is longer than the original 'spike'. So, the interior count applies so that three is not the shortest wave. So, just invalidate the alternate.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CfieV38x/
TJ
note first that a line from 0 - ii (original channel) cuts off no part of wave iii, but now we have to adjust the channel. TJ.
Deleteso now it 'looks like' a wave ② is cut off, but we already demonstrated it was not. This is an artifact of adjusting the channel, and what Elliott might have called in 'hindsight' a 'throw-under' that leads to the third wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yqyMKlPK/
TJ
looks like we are getting the Ⓑ wave over the top for alternation. These things can be quite stubborn and more long-lasting than one might suspect.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FetUlEgL/
TJ
Great call on diagonal T.J. A beautiful set-up.
DeleteThx .. tachy.
DeleteSPY 5-min: a 1.618 wave upward, has been attained in cash, by the Ⓑ wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/b9nlzgDz/
TJ
SPY 5-min: as far as I can tell MACD indicates the larger 2nd wave/larger 3rd wave configuration.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cp9ebnbi/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ