The US Federal Reserve's FOMC decision was to raise the FED Funds interest rate 0.25% today. They also did a pivot in the language away from continued rates hikes being likely to a stance more in recognition that continued tightening of bank lending standards could have the same effect as a rate hike or two. But they did not rule out future hikes.
They also stated that a vice-chair will conduct an investigation into the supervision of Silicon Valley Bank because he doesn't know how it happened. Right. This has to be the one of the most disingenuous people alive today. Of course, there is partial truth in what he says. He just won't recognize his own organization's, and his own personal, contribution to the failures.
The ES futures made new highs into the press conference, and ran into the upper daily Bollinger Band where it was repelled. In the process the 62% retracement of the down move was hit and exceeded slightly. The move was logical given that yesterday's report cited the daily bias as up, and the local trend as up. However, the prior up (green) fractal was not exceeded higher.
During the Q&A period prices began to fall off and reversed from 4,074 to 3,967 below the S1 intraday pivot. Ah well, what's a little 100+ point intraday swing in ES prices? It's only money right? Well, it is an outside reversal day as far as I can tell. Here is the daily chart of the ES futures as of the cash close.
 |
| ES Futures - Daily - Outside Day Down |
As you can see - in making the reversal - prices ran smack into the 18-day SMA and the 100-day SMA (green crosses) - which are within points of each other. The lower daily lows are an important step in possibly forming a third wave down. Next steps include counting five waves down, and then having a lower high that does not exceed today's high. Next, there needs to be lower low than the five-waves down - if and when they are confirmed. Then, the down (red) fractal should be exceeded lower.
Have an excellent start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Like the Pic, looks like he is holding the bag. :)
ReplyDeleteI think we need two more 4's within 3 yet to get to lower channel.
Using all the standard markers of 1.618 for 3, .38 for 4, 5=1 for 5 and a 50% retrace marker right in the middle of 3 all work out to the 3910 area.
DeleteI believe there are some very heated battles going on here, beneath the public surface. All is not what it seems. Danielle DiMartino Booth made some of her work on these questions public overnight. https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/p/too-small-to-not-fail-history In short, my take is its a battle between JPM and allies, vs European bankers (and their fronts) over their CBDC plans. With enormous consequences for us all. I also believe Powell and Yellen are on opposite sides of this conflict. The selloff began when Yellen disavowed plans to broaden FDIC coverage. DDB covers the significance of this, to Powell's way of thinking. All that said, I do think your local count stands up here. But my political fingers point to Yellen, not Powell, based on the lines that DDB has drawn.
ReplyDeleteWhile CBDC will be an interesting transition, it will be just that. There will be 90-year-olds in nursing homes that won't adopt it right away. Meanwhile, the FED is already running a 'trial' with digital payments on the FED wire. None of this accounted for today's reversal which is objectively Bollinger Band, algorithm driven. TJ.
DeleteIs that a triangle over night? We would be in c.
ReplyDeleteJust might be.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/h1ZAPMhS/
The SPY has upward overlap while the SPX was just pennies away...still might overlap
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EikbZbtX/
Triangle busted. On the large triangle from the ATH we would be in a possible c of a b triangle in the large B. Looks like its trying to bust another channel again. This one is the overnight one.
ReplyDeleteCould this be developing?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GEuMm05M/
Because of price & time, I'm err'ing on the side of this count. There is nothing downward without a lower daily low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BYDgUoqV/
TJ
SPY 5-min: as far as I can tell, there is now downward overlap. Not fatal but interesting.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dJVRBRLh/
TJ
SPY 5-min: down wave now becoming 'way too long in time' and might become part of a diagonal fifth wave, or possibly a triangle, but more likely the expanding diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/s3TNn52w/
TJ
ES / SPY new low-of-day (LOD). TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: SPY has confirmed an expanding diagonal by traveling below 391.48 and now wave ⑤ is > ③ in price and time.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zLchUU5V/
TJ
Is it possible with the new daily low that we actually might have a contracting diagonal?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fBMpaNrj/
Yes, possible, and can even go lower. See next day's post which is already up.
DeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ