So, the potential contracting leading diagonal downward (middle of chart) has not invalidated yet as of the cash close. It could. And, if it does, it leaves us with a contracting ending diagonal in its place. How would such a diagonal fit into the local hourly count? Here is the hourly SPY cash chart.
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| SPY Cash - Hourly - Channel Count |
The best fit I can determine is that we had a flat wave after a contracting leading diagonal a wave up. The downward diagonal was then the Ⓒ wave of the b wave. As we do not know that the up wave is over yet, then there could be an impulse c wave to provide alternation with the diagonal a wave. As the chart also suggests, there is sufficient upward movement (> 78% of the prior wave) to also suggest that even if the upward price movement ended here, then the structure could also then be counted as w-x-y to wave (ii) at this location.
There is no crying or gnashing of teeth. There is only calm, patience, and flexibility recognizing that the b wave and most recent ② wave markers take on some added importance at this time.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
TJ thank you for your work. the past few weeks i've been looking at an ABCDE from the june 17th low of 3636. you posted the chart in the previous post.
ReplyDeleteWave 1 or A 4817 to 3636 June 17 2022 low
A 4223
B 3493
C 4188
D 3508
E 4120 ? We're in E now. then huge drop down
Wave 3 or C down. 100% of 1/A is 2930. 161% of 1/A is 2200
Triangles all over the place, that is why I am real hesitant to get on any impulse down count. If your above triangle works, out it would look better if we were in b of D
DeleteTJ, Posted this before seeing your reply on the last post. Thinking the same on this triangle.
DeleteKind of like your big triangle idea. We're coming to the end of the quarter this week, so hard to see the market start a significant decline until the cash inflows have been absorbed. That takes us to mid-April (to point C). The May-June period is often weak (to point D). Then a summer rally, to point E. Then the bear finale into October, to point (C). Whatever the Fed says now, they will support the market in 2024, an election year, inflation be damned.
ReplyDeleteRegarding the bigger picture, what's the phrase around here?
ReplyDelete"I don't make the waves, only try to count them."
On the monthly I see a base channel (white) acceleration channel (red) and a possible overall channel (blue) were 3 of 3 breaks the base channel.
https://imgur.com/IXy3aU8
The EWO says I'm not crazy.
Not what I want but 40 trillion should get you something!
Speaking of triangles, watching a nice symmetrical one on the hourly gold.
ReplyDeleteare you considering alternate count that we are in bullish impulse or LD off the october low? oct/nov was "1", nov to march was running expanding flat "2", "3" began in march, and the recent spy up gaps are iii of 3 ? this is very similar to some of early moves off the 2008 low when there eas similar running flat i believee.
ReplyDeleteps, it would be appropriate if i posted that comment at a major long term turning point downward on the market....
DeleteGreat point, marc
Delete@marc .. that possibility was discussed way back on Feb 18th. See the second chart in this post.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/02/count-alternate.html
TJ
A simpler count would be we are in 5th of ld from low @marc
DeleteDaily bb hit on both futures and cash. There's hidden bear divergence on the daily chart but noone seems to care about it.
ReplyDeleteSPY 30-min: now down to a 23.6% retrace on the prior wave. It 'might be' a fourth wave starting. It 'might' go over the top again. Just be careful as the local wave count is very very difficult.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pTTLxkJZ/
Further, price stalled this morning at the 62% level from the entire prior down wave. Just ugly stuff, so far.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ