Monday, March 27, 2023

Watching Prior High

The half-hourly SPY cash chart is below. Price has gone over the 62% retrace, meaning that a 1.618 or greater wave downward can be supported IFF a down trend wave begins.


Right now we are watching the high, and watching the gap to look for clues.

Have an excellent start to the day.

TraderJoe

17 comments:

  1. Two clues: SPY gap fill and channel break.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/U3ShWpWB/

    Might put a wave counting stop above this morning's high.
    TJ

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  2. Not sure but this is what I'm seeing

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/EGpF0Td2/

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  3. Is this a 78.6% 'deep retrace'? If so, then a 'lot' of downside acceleration is needed.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/0hGjhe7y/

    TJ

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  4. Might be trying to form an expanding diagonal. Still needs development

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/k4nN84Bk/

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  5. No acceleration yet; maybe tomorrow. TJ.

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  6. Acceleration occurring to the upside currently

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    Replies
    1. Isn't diagonal invalidated?

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    2. The 'leading' diagonal is not invalidated quite yet. I don't know what you are following. The diagonal itself will not be invalidated. It is what it is. It might turn out to be an 'ending' diagonal. TJ.

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    3. Chart as of now in cash. Futures are the same.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/yGbP74xy/

      TJ

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  7. Spx 4015 and fast drop to start wave 3 down.
    Tj,
    What is the invalidation point 4020?
    Or 4041 ??

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  8. Wondering if this might be forming

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/yE4NcNZZ/

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  9. Another possibility shorter term

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/NJgYocMN/

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  10. The market has been hovering around the short call of JPM's collar trade.

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  11. If contracting diagonal was ending, then I think we are in c of b of (B) of the large triangle from ATH. I think going over the top really puts some nails in the bear coffin.

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    Replies
    1. OK. So on the triangle idea - which I have been thinking a lot about. And also recognizing the stock market's up move has not ended with a really fine ending diagonal: what if the triangle was the 'inverse', not wave four, but a wave (B), as below.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/60Sw4xwf/

      This would allow the more typical 62% retrace for the second wave of an ending diagonal wave. Think it over.

      TJ

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  12. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete