A lot of short term counts appear in the comments of prior posts. This is just to back off from the minutiae to focus on the daily time frame.
Have a look at the recent fractals. If the down (red) fractals break under the blue EMA-34 that will likely be significant. Watch tomorrow to see if the prior high holds. If it does, then the most recent up (green) fractal becomes valid.
So far, there has been a back-test of the prior wedge up trend line and the EMA-34. Let's see if they hold or not. The daily RSI is back below the 50 level. A lower low on the RSI would be more convincing.
As far as I can tell, the degree labels follow the definitions.
Have an excellent rest of the evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks TJ,
ReplyDeleteiii of 3 ?
Thank you I appreciate the daily and above timeframes.
ReplyDeleteTJ - In regards to time can you please explain why a triangle is more fitting in the scenario above when (b) of the triangle is longer in time than circle A Up of Y? Would a diagonal with (b) becoming (i) and ending with a truncated fifth (v) wave be more fitting for Y? I do see the green wedge but just wondering why the triangle is the fit in regards to time?
ReplyDeletebecause if the larger count is W-X-Y, then Y must be in 'three' waves. A diagonal is only one wave. 'And' if a diagonal had a truncated fifth wave, then it can't be leading. And, the first retrace within a diagonal is not 62%; see link below.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/-hcnp
And, the fourth wave has a trend-line miss, and is much, much less than 62%. In sum, the triangle fits the rules and 'guidelines' better than a diagonal does. Hope it helps.
TJ
Yes...thank you....the Y wave being three is a big one.
DeleteES 30-min: either way you wish to count the futures, the lower low happened before the upward overlap, and it 'looks like' the five-down count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vdyWutQV/
This argues for monitoring the high.
TJ
with some sneak
Deletehttps://imgur.com/uJ41vgz
SPY 5-min: there are three-waves up since the low, and a 90% downward retrace.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8Emw4Vrm/
Watch for a Flat (now valid) or possibly an expanded flat or a next impulse lower.
TJ
SPY 5-min: new low of day. Might also qualify for BBR's wave five.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Xo3XuHTl/
TJ
SPY 5-min: possible ①, ②; watch the low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/SLgky6DO/
TJ
higher high above ①. TJ.
Delete..look for a possible 1.618 wave up. Good luck all. TJ.
DeleteI'm looking at this as the likely pattern.
ReplyDeleteIt's not an e-wave pattern, but I think it's the same, looking for an upwards move towards 4200-4300 before breakdown. No significant trend breaks so far, just an upwards wedge at the bottom trend line with one more leg up left to go.
https://i.imgur.com/klNsbxv.jpg
Old news, already addressed days ago in the second chart in this post.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/02/count-alternate.html
So far, on both a 'closing' basis and 'intraday' (wicks) basis, price is below the lower wedge line.
TJ
SPY 15-min: price has reached 1.618 in a Flat, and exceeded 38.2% as a retrace. Can go further if it wants. Next Fib confluence at 2.000 in a Flat, and 50% retrace.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gG9SPkPP/
TJ
SPY 5-min: 'possible' to have had yet another truncation at the 38.2% retrace and c = 1.618 x a of a Flat.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oRlirshY/
TJ
..the upward wave 'looks like' a five, and it did reach 78.6%+ TJ.
DeleteLooks like triangle/flagging price action on some indices.
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min : has closed the gap and may well be in a 3rd wave lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mkc8hdF5/
Dropping faster than I can type. Lol.
TJ
..just also showing some likely institutional volume coming in on this wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nKORo6DS/
TJ
1-2-i-ii
DeleteSPY 5-min: an expanding diagonal has been validated in cash, with ⑤ > ③ > ① and ④ > ②. In futures wave ④ overlaps wave ①; not in cash but nothing to worry about (use the 'almost always overlaps' language in the Elliott Wave Principle). Wave ③ is right where it should be.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FB6kyS4q/
TJ
..now below prior wave ② of up wave; see channel on the left, and 1.618 attained.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BlYAUbx4/
This make further up waves (other than a second wave correction) very, very difficult. TJ.
SPY 5-min: interesting coincidence? prior close is now at 62% retrace and at prior fourth wave area?!. Nothing says downside is done yet, but it could be.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qAOymZ4q/
TJ
Now below prior wave 'i'; not prior Ⓑ wave just yet. Diagonal has likely added enough waves and structure to convert to impulse. More later. TJ.
ReplyDeleteAmazing work TJ!
ReplyDeleteMany thanks. 😄
You've lately done some of the best wave counting I have ever seen.
Thanks Henry. Nice of you to say & welcome. TJ.
DeleteNow below the prior Ⓑ wave; daily lower up trend line back-test failure. More later.
ReplyDeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ