The daily chart of the ES futures has the 18-day SMA ('the-line-in-the-sand) crossing down under the 100-day SMA.
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| ES Futures - 1 Day - 18 Cross 100 SMA |
If the Smart Money rules, and to some extent they do, then the combination should offer some resistance to upward price movement. While no harm has been done to a fourth wave count (yet), odds of an impulse got a little lower with today's move up. And, the odds of a diagonal increased a bit. Neither can be ruled in or ruled out at this time.
Price is also back up to the potential horizontal resistance from the December 2021 lows. Remember, tomorrow is the first trading day of the month - and often that brings the usual inflows, although some of that might have been seen today depending on specifics of the timing of roll-overs, etc.
Have a very good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
SPXcfd - equality reached -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/jf5gu2x2xigcdq0/Equality.PNG/file
TNX - very early, top not confirmed - full retrace 1.34, prelim target 1.38 (closes).
ReplyDeleteWTI (4hr) - Couple poss. 3PDhs [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/sq2107pxagralpz/WTI4hr.PNG/file
Note: point F should be peak 3 on both. Slight corrections for prelim targets.
DeleteGw, New to this. How to you get the 2 and 1.641 in the above examples?
DeleteThank you.
Multiplier is SwingOver - (N-G)/(F-G), lesser of the calculation or 2.0 (max)
Deleteif peaks of F and N are less than 10mths apart. If greater, the max is allowed to be 2.2. Hope this helps.
For reference, here's the whole structure as outlined in The Art of Technical Analysis (Lindsay) - He used this primarily on a daily chart. My focus (right or wrong) is on the first two (peaks/separating decline). The domed house structure looks like it could be pretty subjective, thus my focus on the earlier components. (fwiw) :o)
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/hzlj0n9fjrrysyl/3PDhdiagram.PNG/file
GW Did you read Ed Carlson's book?
ReplyDelete"George Linday and art of technical Analysis"
Ed Carloson does have an article on TASC about 3pdh. I have another book by Martin Pring on order. "Investing in the Second Lost Decade" Chapter on Inflation I'd like to read.
I do have a sell signal on Markos Katsanos "buy or sell or buy or hold" indicator. This indicator is available in TOS.
https://mkatsanos.com/
Please respect the fact that I don't want buy/sell signals published here. This is a wave counting site.
DeleteTJ
Thanks TJ,
DeleteHas today's move enough to be confirm a diagonal?
..overlap 'should' occur for the diagonal. It has become much more probable but by no means certain.
DeleteTJ
Overlap has occurred in futures. May or may not happen with cash as futures are retracing.
DeleteXLI (mthly) - interesting chart
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/lgmfrc7are0766n/XLImthly.PNG/file
GDX (wkly) - crunch time -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/10vfoa3hyjigkrb/GDXwkly.PNG/file
TJ, I'm thinking there may have been a truncation for 5 of a flat around the 28th. That may also have been the "sneak" for a 4 or XX since 2020 low.
ReplyDeleteAny comments, concerns, or criticism?
..see below.
DeleteTJ
Thx so much.
DeleteGood morning all. IFF cash SPY should overlap (which I suspect), then these are the counting anomalies I previously mentioned which gave rise to the very early idea of a 'potential' expanding diagonal on the way down.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oKTK8Khx/
The most important of which are 1) the three-wave look to the interior counts with the very short retraces - probably 'b' waves, 2) Wave 3 ending on 'no divergence' with the EWO, 3) the overall potentially expanding look to the EWO, 4) the 'potential' leading diagonal off of the bottom, and 5) what appears to be a 'c' wave up now as it has very short internal retrace waves.
There are no guarantees. The expanding diagonal is a 'low probability pattern' that must prove itself.
TJ
..oh, and the other anomaly was the location of the gaps, not in the 'center' of third waves.
DeleteTJ
I agree that it looks like 3 wave patterns. The wave off the low doesn’t look impulsive yet. If cash doesn’t overlap, I guess it becomes a WXY.
DeleteEs made a small overlap with wave 2 this morning according to the numbers on investing.com. Is that correct?
Delete@Roberto .. yes, that is correct. That 'may be' all that is needed.
DeleteTJ
Hi TJ,Could the 3 in this downward diagonal be a larger 1 instead, and 4 is wave 2 of the diagonal?
Delete@Christine .. not likely. I need to take this one wave at a time. Not sure why your would think the recent up wave needs to be wave 2.
DeleteTJ
Mon,Tues,Wed pivots (untested) are below us, with weekly (untested) just below Monday's daily.
ReplyDeleteSPY (195m) -3 channel update - backtest?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/nv0o4bpc96yv390/SPY3ch.PNG/file
SPY - Est measures for exp. diag within posited exp flat - confluence
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/5e4yjvj094hybc9/SPYflatest.PNG/file
Assumes just a slight overlap. Measure will change with actual.
DeleteSPY 5-min: just an illustration at this point.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/I20BppbN/
Degree labels are for illustration only.
TJ
SPY 5-min..there's the closing overlap for noon Chicago time.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jcpFy7Qs/
TJ
Thanks TJ,
DeleteDoes the overlapping be considered in time & price frame or both?
SPY 5-min: the count is getting exceptionally mature.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/L1amIn6j/
TJ
@manu .. yes, wave 4 is longer in both price and time than wave 2.
DeleteTJ
ES 5-min after-hours -20 on a long red bar. Have a good night all.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY (30m) - E.O.D. Resistance, ready to head south?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/l24gu5h1iwkrzi5/Resistance.PNG/file
There is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ