Here is a way to get the Dow at the 1.618 external retracement of the March, 2020 Covid-19 down wave. Yes, there might be way to convert this to a five wave count if certain things happen. But right now, those additional waves (the 'certain things that might happen') are not in evidence.
Because of the large number of overlaps since May 2021, an impulse count may have difficulty. Further, there would be numerous breaks of a 0 - 2 trend line in a third wave. Note than in this count there is alternation between both of the (X) waves. The first (X) is a simple zigzag. The second (X) is a triangle. This might be the count if the 1.618 external Fibonacci retrace is the limit.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Thanks TJ,
ReplyDeleteInterested analysis.
Gold/Silver (wkly) - One last push up, then ......south? (click to sharpen)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/o9mykqzlw7935e7/GoldSilverw.PNG/file
SPX (wkly/hrly) - A different vibe (with baggage) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/lldihrfmex6if5t/Low%2525.PNG/file
TJ and readers, please consider the following exercise. Say a stock price rises from $7 to $20 in a wave 3. It then traces out an expanding triangle in wave 4: $15, $22, $13, $24, and $11, before topping out in wave 5 at $33. What is the length of wave 4 and how much of wave 3 does it retrace?
ReplyDeleteTrue triangles are 'always' measured to their (e) waves.
DeleteGivens:
W3 = 20 - 7 = 13
W4 = 20 - 11 = 9 [3 -> (e)]
W5 = 33 - 11 = 22
W4 retrace % = 9/13 x 100 = 62.9%
Conclusions:
1. Wave 5 is much longer than wave 1; not likely in reality
2. Wave 5 is much longer than 0.62x net [1-3]; not likely in reality
3. Wave 4 is > 50% retrace on wave 3; not likely in reality
The retrace % of wave 2 on wave 1 is not stated. However, assume just a 50% retrace of wave 1 for wave 2. That means wave 1 ended somewhere in the $13 - $14 range (depending on starting price) and that would overlap the wave (e) of $11; again not making the wave 4 example realistic because of wave 4 -> 1 overlap.
This is the reason I don't participate in hypothetical examples.
TJ
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteHmm, I would answer "You always measure a wave from its starting point to its ending point no matter what happens in between". Same result. Now I want to understand the measurements of your Primary A. In SPX, your count says [III] tops at 2941. So (A)=-594, (B)=1047, and (C)=-1202. I would say ((A)) measures -749 (start to finish). If this is wrong, please explain why it is wrong. And if, hypothetically, the count was 3=2941 and 4 was the expanded flat, would 4 measure -749 or would it measure -1202?
DeleteBob .. I am really having a hard time seeing the point of this question. In both the triangle and the flat, there is "net distance traveled" (i.e. wave 3 to wave (e) difference in triangle, or wave 3 to wave 4 difference in a flat). Then, there is "total pattern range" (i.e. from high of (d) wave to low of (e) wave in an expanding triangle; or high of b wave to low of c wave in an expanded flat); and then there is 'total excursion' which is the number of cumulative points traveled by each of the wave segments in the pattern (i.e. 3-to a, a-to-b, b-to-c, etc). Again, I don't see what you are looking for.
DeleteTJ
Is (A)=-749?
DeleteTJ - speaking of flats - IF a (b) wave of an exp. flat is itself an exp. flat
DeleteSee diagram -
Which is correct - 1, 2, or 3?
Thanks!
https://www.mediafire.com/view/1xtaqty93e12amp/expflatB.png/file
@GW & Bob - I intentionally distance myself from the hypotheticals. One reason I do is, for example, in GW's link. It is clear the meaning of an expanded flat is not known. In that diagram, (a) is correct, but a of (b) would actually be (b), and b of (b) would be (c) of a first flat. If c of (b) were in the five waves shown, then it would likely be either 5 or a truncation. The 'whole point' of an expanded flat is that the higher high allows the much lower low. So again, with truncated high or a "running flat" for (b), the wave signatures would not match the market's strength and, again, another hypothetical that just does not make sense. If you show me actual waves made during market hours perhaps I can help more.
DeleteTJ
@Bob; no, ((A)) is -749; not (A) as you stated at 1:17 pm. I have included a chart so there is no confusion.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fOYz8Ol1/
But I still have no idea of what you are driving at.
TJ
Then ((B)) is 2627 so far which is 350% the size of ((A)). Is that correct?
DeleteNo Bob. The size of ((A)) is the size for 'retrace on (5)'. I have previously shown the external retrace measurement on the Dow (1.618) to guage the size for the ((B)) wave.
DeleteTJ
OK, let's give the simplest example possible. Say B is the same length as A. So B retraces 100% of A. The ratio of B/A is 1. There is no dependence on what happened prior to the beginning of A.
Delete@Bob.. please see the next day's post. Yes, a regular flat can have close to a C = A measurement. That is included in the post. But you are dead-wrong in my opinion to say 'there is no dependence on what happened prior to the beginning of A.'
DeleteWas what happened before 'A' a third wave? If so, one expectation for the 'retrace' occurs. Was what happened before 'A' a larger (A) wave. This generates a different expectation for the overall size of the flat. Was what happened before 'A' a larger (W) wave or perhaps the initial stages of a leading diagonal or triangle? Then perhaps such a Flat, will FAIL, especially if it's B wave travels ways beyond 1.618.
Right now I am not discussing this any more in this post.
TJ
RTY (8hr) - 3PDh - trading range breakdown?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/rt58iov4dmqrs2m/RTY3PDh.PNG/file
Oops, typo - in the "math" line - 2463.6 s/b 313.1, the result of 444.55 is OK
DeleteThanks Amit.
ReplyDeleteCan you please plot on a graph?
Here's actual price action, relating to the same question as posed above (external retrace of an exp. flat B wave) - no hypothetical -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/h9pvfeeddz7s2e9/Actual_example.PNG/file
From your own chart labeling -
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/vcwkbewwqbzgclu/Actual.PNG/file
In the first instance I see what you are doing. You are pulling stuff from the Elliott Wave book by Kennedy, et al. I can assure you I can not today find a stock called Techne Corporation in the stock databases of Barchart.com or of TradingView to check their work, not with these prices in these time ranges.
DeleteIn the second place in the example, an Expanded Flat is labeled, but the 'structure' simply isn't there. There 'must be' by-the-rules a higher high (b) wave to call it an 'expanded flat'. That higher high is not there.
In the third case, in the Dow, I almost always - if not always - called the structure you are labeling as a flat, a triangle! Using the extra waves after your ((c)).
If needs be I will pull up the posts that show it. I will no longer entertain questions on this topic.
TJ
Nice job of avoiding the question. It seems a simple one, but apparently not.
DeletePick your own exp flats, running and not, perhaps then we can get an answer.
Sheesh.
Nice way of 'mixing subjects' to make it appear as if I am the one at fault. I assure you I am intending to provide the most accurate answers possible. But, clearly one must understand the 'rule' for the (b) wave of an expanded flat. By 'rule' it 'must' be > 105% of the prior (a) wave. If you are discussing 'running flats' that is a completely different subject.
DeleteTJ
As I said, you pick the expanded flats - one where C exceeds A, and one that doesnt. From what points do you calculate an external retracement for each one?
DeleteSimple questions. Can we now find out what the answers are?
Thanks!
@GW, I have made a separate posting of this topic for the next day.
DeleteTJ
Hi TJ,
ReplyDeleteSPX cash is having 4614.75 as today's low but ES fut low for the day is 4638.75.
Anything we missed in adjustments?
Manu? Come on, man. The cash SPX was closed today for Martin Luther King holiday.
Deletehttps://www.tradinghours.com/markets/nyse/holidays
Excuse my frustration but this is 'basic stuff' eating up my time and not at all on the subject of Elliott Wave.
TJ
Apologies..
DeleteI do not live in US and forgot to check updated SPX. I am still learning.
SPY (2day) - 3 Channels
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/caz1yotc8mv3ew4/3channels.PNG/file